04193oam 22009854 450 991015489930332120230808205455.01-4755-4559-21-4755-4560-6(CKB)4340000000018104(MiAaPQ)EBC4745302(IMF)WPIEA2016205(EXLCZ)99434000000001810420020129d2016 uf 0engurcnu||||||||rdacontentrdamediardacarrierSurprise, Surprise : What Drives the Rand / U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate Volatility? /Nasha Maveé, Roberto Perrelli, Axel SchimmelpfennigWashington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,2016.1 online resource (39 pages) illustrations, tables, graphsIMF Working Papers1-4755-4542-8 Includes bibliographical references.This paper investigates possible drivers of volatility in the South African rand since the onset of the global financial crisis. We assess the role played by local and international economic surprises, commodity price volatility, global market risk perceptions, and local political uncertainty. As a measure of rand volatility, the study uses a market-based implied volatility indicator for the rand / U.S. dollar exchange rate. Economic surprises—the difference between market expectations and data prints—are captured by Citi’s Economic Surprise Index which is available for South Africa and its main economic partners. The results suggest that rand volatility is mainly driven by commodity price volatility, and global market volatility, as well as domestic political uncertainty. In addition, economic surprises originating in the United States matter, but not those originating from South Africa, Europe, or China.IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;No. 2016/205Dollar, AmericanForeign exchange ratesSouth AfricaMoneySouth AfricaFinance: GeneralimfForeign ExchangeimfInflationimfMacroeconomicsimfInternational Finance Forecasting and SimulationimfInternational Financial MarketsimfFinancial Forecasting and SimulationimfCommodity MarketsimfPrice LevelimfDeflationimfGeneral Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data)imfCurrencyimfForeign exchangeimfFinanceimfExchange ratesimfCommodity price fluctuationsimfEmerging and frontier financial marketsimfExchange rate flexibilityimfPricesimfFinancial marketsimfFinancial services industryimfSouth AfricaimfDollar, American.Foreign exchange ratesMoneyFinance: GeneralForeign ExchangeInflationMacroeconomicsInternational Finance Forecasting and SimulationInternational Financial MarketsFinancial Forecasting and SimulationCommodity MarketsPrice LevelDeflationGeneral Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data)CurrencyForeign exchangeFinanceExchange ratesCommodity price fluctuationsEmerging and frontier financial marketsExchange rate flexibilityPricesFinancial marketsFinancial services industry332.4973Maveé Nasha1378329Perrelli Roberto1141566Schimmelpfennig Axel1190900DcWaIMFBOOK9910154899303321Surprise, Surprise3649999UNINA