05462nam 2200673 a 450 991014468280332120200520144314.01-282-34856-697866123485630-470-69443-20-470-69442-4(CKB)1000000000687579(EBL)470415(OCoLC)609849283(SSID)ssj0000308507(PQKBManifestationID)11246551(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000308507(PQKBWorkID)10258795(PQKB)11744544(MiAaPQ)EBC470415(Au-PeEL)EBL470415(CaPaEBR)ebr10297957(CaONFJC)MIL234856(EXLCZ)99100000000068757920080229d2008 uy 0engurcn|||||||||txtccrRisk analysis assessing uncertainties beyond expected values and probabilities /Terje Aven1st ed.Chichester, England ;Hoboken, NJ Wileyc20081 online resource (206 p.)Description based upon print version of record.0-470-51736-0 Includes bibliographical references (p. [187]-191) and index.Risk Analysis; Contents; Preface; Part I Theory and methods; 1 What is a risk analysis?; 1.1 Why risk analysis?; 1.2 Risk management; 1.2.1 Decision-making under uncertainty; 1.3 Examples: decision situations; 1.3.1 Risk analysis for a tunnel; 1.3.2 Risk analysis for an offshore installation; 1.3.3 Risk analysis related to a cash depot; 2 What is risk?; 2.1 Vulnerability; 2.2 How to describe risk quantitatively; 2.2.1 Description of risk in a financial context; 2.2.2 Description of risk in a safety context; 3 The risk analysis process: planning; 3.1 Problem definition3.2 Selection of analysis method 3.2.1 Checklist-based approach; 3.2.2 Risk-based approach; 4 The risk analysis process: risk assessment; 4.1 Identification of initiating events; 4.2 Cause analysis; 4.3 Consequence analysis; 4.4 Probabilities and uncertainties; 4.5 Risk picture: Risk presentation; 4.5.1 Sensitivity and robustness analyses; 4.5.2 Risk evaluation; 5 The risk analysis process: risk treatment; 5.1 Comparisons of alternatives; 5.1.1 How to assess measures?; 5.2 Management review and judgement; 6 Risk analysis methods; 6.1 Coarse risk analysis; 6.2 Job safety analysis6.3 Failure modes and effects analysis 6.3.1 Strengths and weaknesses of an FMEA; 6.4 Hazard and operability studies; 6.5 SWIFT; 6.6 Fault tree analysis; 6.6.1 Qualitative analysis; 6.6.2 Quantitative analysis; 6.7 Event tree analysis; 6.7.1 Barrier block diagrams; 6.8 Bayesian networks; 6.9 Monte Carlo simulation; Part II Examples of applications; 7 Safety measures for a road tunnel; 7.1 Planning; 7.1.1 Problem definition; 7.1.2 Selection of analysis method; 7.2 Risk assessment; 7.2.1 Identification of initiating events; 7.2.2 Cause analysis; 7.2.3 Consequence analysis; 7.2.4 Risk picture7.3 Risk treatment 7.3.1 Comparison of alternatives; 7.3.2 Management review and decision; 8 Risk analysis process for an offshore installation; 8.1 Planning; 8.1.1 Problem definition; 8.1.2 Selection of analysis method; 8.2 Risk analysis; 8.2.1 Hazard identification; 8.2.2 Cause analysis; 8.2.3 Consequence analysis; 8.3 Risk picture and comparison of alternatives; 8.4 Management review and judgement; 9 Production assurance; 9.1 Planning; 9.2 Risk analysis; 9.2.1 Identification of failures; 9.2.2 Cause analysis; 9.2.3 Consequence analysis; 9.3 Risk picture and comparison of alternatives9.4 Management review and judgement. Decision 10 Risk analysis process for a cash depot; 10.1 Planning; 10.1.1 Problem definition; 10.1.2 Selection of analysis method; 10.2 Risk analysis; 10.2.1 Identification of hazards and threats; 10.2.2 Cause analysis; 10.2.3 Consequence analysis; 10.3 Risk picture; 10.4 Risk-reducing measures; 10.4.1 Relocation of the NOKAS facility; 10.4.2 Erection of a wall; 10.5 Management review and judgment. Decision; 10.6 Discussion; 11 Risk analysis process for municipalities; 11.1 Planning; 11.1.1 Problem definition; 11.1.2 Selection of analysis method11.2 Risk assessmentEveryday we face decisions that carry an element of risk and uncertainty. The ability to analyze, predict, and prepare for the level of risk entailed by these decisions is, therefore, one of the most constant and vital skills needed for analysts, scientists and managers. Risk analysis can be defined as a systematic use of information to identify hazards, threats and opportunities, as well as their causes and consequences, and then express risk. In order to successfully develop such a systematic use of information, those analyzing the risk need to understand the fundamental concepts of riskRisk assessmentMathematical modelsRiskMathematical modelsUncertaintyMathematical modelsRisk assessmentMathematical models.RiskMathematical models.UncertaintyMathematical models.338.5Aven T(Terje)878124MiAaPQMiAaPQMiAaPQBOOK9910144682803321Risk analysis1960453UNINA