05343nam 2200661 a 450 991014138270332120230621135335.00-19-178156-81-283-65823-20-19-164524-9(CKB)2670000000259091(EBL)1029656(OCoLC)819615130(SSID)ssj0000775459(PQKBManifestationID)12342749(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000775459(PQKBWorkID)10742471(PQKB)10598433(MiAaPQ)EBC1029656(StDuBDS)EDZ0000180990(MiAaPQ)EBC5825755(oapen)https://directory.doabooks.org/handle/20.500.12854/31453(EXLCZ)99267000000025909120131219d2012 fy| 0enguran#---uu|uutxtrdacontentcrdamediacrrdacarrierExplaining criminal careers[electronic resource] implications for justice policy /John F. MacLeod, Peter G. Grove, David P. FarringtonFirst edition.Oxford Oxford University Press20121 online resource (273 pages) illustrationsClarendon studies in criminologyDescription based upon print version of record.0-19-969724-8 Includes bibliographical references and index.Cover; Contents; 1. Criminal Career Research, Mathematical Models, and Testing Quantitative Predictions from Theories; Background; Blumstein and Cohen (1979); The National Academy Panel; Explaining the Growth in Recidivism Probabilities; Explaining the Individual Offending Frequency; Objections to Criminal Career Research; Criminal Career Research in the Last 20 Years; Aims of this Book; Methodological Notes; 2. An Analysis of the Offenders Index; Sources of Data; Recidivism; Reconviction Rate; Reconciling the Risk and Rate Categories; Gender; Is Criminality Constant over the Cohorts?3. The Theory and a Simple ModelOrientation; Introduction; The Assumptions of our Theory; Explaining the Age-Crime Curve; The Rise in Crime from 10 to 17 Years of Age; Modelling the Age-Crime Curve; The 100,000 Active Prolific Offenders; Corollaries and Comments; Conclusion; 4. Criminal Careers of Serious, Less Serious, and Trivial Offenders; Orientation; Introduction; Offenders with Custody at First Court Appearance; Custody Rates; Serious Offenders; Less Serious Offenders; Serious Offences; Simplified Modelling of Convictions for Serious Offences; Simplified Modelling of all ConvictionsVersatility or Specialization in OffendingTrivial Offenders; Conclusion; 5. Is Age the Primary Influence on Offending?; Orientation; Introduction; Possible Types of Age Dependence; Testing the Theories; Conclusion; 6. Characteristics of Individuals; Orientation; Introduction; The Rationale and Development of OASys; Analysis of the Pilot OASys Data; The Distribution of Section 11 Scores; Is there Structure in the Section 11 Information in OASys?; Homogeneous and Heterogeneous Section 11 Questions; Conclusions from the OASys Pilot Data Analysis; Analysis of Operational OASys DataAnalysis of April 2004 PNC Conviction DataConclusions; 7. Applications for Managing the Criminal Justice System; Orientation; Introduction; The Flow Model; Predicting the Prison Population; The DNA Database; Conclusion; 8. Criminal Policy Implications; Orientation; Introduction; Overview of the Theory; The Categories; Areas where Policy could Influence Crime; Childhood Early Interventions; Early Career Interventions; Increasing the Efficiency of Conviction; Offender Treatment Programmes; Prolific and other Priority Offenders; Implications and Uses of the Theory; Frequently Asked Questions9. Summary and ConclusionsSummary; The Origin of the Offender Categories; Criminality; Recidivism; Conviction Rate λ; The Effects of Formal Warnings and Cautions; The Criminal Career Debate; Conclusions; Appendix: Mathematical Notes; Introduction; Constant Probability Systems; Allocation of Offenders to the Risk/Rate Categories; An Alternative Modelling Approach; Incapacitation; Steady State Solutions; Estimating the Active Offender Population Size; Maximum Likelihood Estimation of the Recidivism Parameters; Bibliography; Index; A; B; C; D; F; G; I; L; M; N; O; P; R; S; T; VUsing the Home Office Offenders Index, a unique database containing records of all criminal convictions in England and Wales since 1963, this simple but influential theory makes exact quantitative predictions about criminal careers and age-crime curves, in particular the prison population contingent on a given sentencing policy.Clarendon studies in criminology.CriminalsGreat BritainCriminal justice, Administration ofGreat BritainCriminalsCriminal justice, Administration of365.66MacLeod John F954629Grove Peter G1271677Farrington David P784354StDuBDSStDuBDSBOOK9910141382703321Explaining criminal careers2995721UNINA