05519nam 2200733 a 450 991013904400332120200520144314.01-118-73557-91-118-69186-51-118-73564-1(CKB)2550000001102599(EBL)1315864(SSID)ssj0000917900(PQKBManifestationID)11483966(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000917900(PQKBWorkID)10893234(PQKB)10562601(DLC) 2013017551(Au-PeEL)EBL1315864(CaPaEBR)ebr10734639(CaONFJC)MIL505082(CaSebORM)9781118735572(MiAaPQ)EBC1315864(OCoLC)841518549(EXLCZ)99255000000110259920130805d2013 uy 0engur|n|---|||||txtccrDemand-driven forecasting[electronic resource]a structured approach to forecasting /Charles W. Chase, Jr2nd ed.Hoboken, N.J. Wileyc20131 online resource (386 p.)Wiley & SAS Business SeriesIncludes index.1-118-66939-8 1-299-73831-1 Includes bibliographical references and index.Demand-Driven Forecasting; Contents; Foreword; Preface; Acknowledgments; About the Author; Chapter 1 Demystifying Forecasting: Myths versus Reality; DATA COLLECTION, STORAGE, AND PROCESSING REALITY; ART-OF-FORECASTING MYTH; END-CAP DISPLAY DILEMMA; REALITY OF JUDGMENTAL OVERRIDES; OVEN CLEANER CONNECTION; MORE IS NOT NECESSARILY BETTER; REALITY OF UNCONSTRAINED FORECASTS, CONSTRAINED FORECASTS, AND PLANS; NORTHEAST REGIONAL SALES COMPOSITE FORECAST; HOLD-AND-ROLL MYTH; THE PLAN THAT WAS NOT GOOD ENOUGH; PACKAGE TO ORDER VERSUS MAKE TO ORDER; "DO YOU WANT FRIES WITH THAT?"; SUMMARY; NOTESChapter 2 What Is Demand-Driven Forecasting?TRANSITIONING FROM TRADITIONAL DEMAND FORECASTING; WHAT'S WRONG WITH THE DEMAND-GENERATION PICTURE?; FUNDAMENTAL FLAW WITH TRADITIONAL DEMAND GENERATION; RELYING SOLELY ON A SUPPLY-DRIVEN STRATEGY IS NOT THE SOLUTION; WHAT IS DEMAND-DRIVEN FORECASTING?; WHAT IS DEMAND SENSING AND SHAPING?; CHANGING THE DEMAND MANAGEMENT PROCESS IS ESSENTIAL; COMMUNICATION IS KEY; MEASURING DEMAND MANAGEMENT SUCCESS; BENEFITS OF A DEMAND-DRIVEN FORECASTING PROCESS; KEY STEPS TO IMPROVE THE DEMAND MANAGEMENT PROCESSWHY HAVEN'T COMPANIES EMBRACED THE CONCEPT OF DEMAND-DRIVEN?Key Points; SUMMARY; NOTES; Chapter 3 Overview of Forecasting Methods; UNDERLYING METHODOLOGY; DIFFERENT CATEGORIES OF METHODS; HOW PREDICTABLE IS THE FUTURE?; SOME CAUSES OF FORECAST ERROR; SEGMENTING YOUR PRODUCTS TO CHOOSE THE APPROPRIATE FORECASTING METHOD; New Products Quadrant; Niche Brands Quadrant; Growth Brands Quadrant; Harvest Brands Quadrant; SUMMARY; NOTE; Chapter 4 Measuring Forecast Performance; "WE OVERACHIEVED OUR FORECAST, SO LET'S PARTY!"; PURPOSES FOR MEASURING FORECASTING PERFORMANCESTANDARD STATISTICAL ERROR TERMSSPECIFIC MEASURES OF FORECAST ERROR; OUT-OF-SAMPLE MEASUREMENT; FORECAST VALUE ADDED; SUMMARY; NOTES; Chapter 5 Quantitative Forecasting Methods Using Time Series Data; UNDERSTANDING THE MODEL-FITTING PROCESS; INTRODUCTION TO QUANTITATIVE TIME SERIES METHODS; QUANTITATIVE TIME SERIES METHODS; MOVING AVERAGING; EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING; SINGLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING; HOLT'S TWO-PARAMETER METHOD; HOLT'S-WINTERS' METHOD; WINTERS' ADDITIVE SEASONALITY; Multiplicative versus Additive Seasonality; SUMMARY; NOTES; Chapter 6 Regression Analysis; REGRESSION METHODSSIMPLE REGRESSIONCORRELATION COEFFICIENT; COEFFICIENT OF DETERMINATION; MULTIPLE REGRESSION; DATA VISUALIZATION USING SCATTER PLOTS AND LINE GRAPHS; CORRELATION MATRIX; MULTICOLLINEARITY; ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE; F-TEST; ADJUSTED R2; PARAMETER COEFFICIENTS; t-TEST; P-VALUES; VARIANCE INFLATION FACTOR; DURBIN-WATSON STATISTIC; INTERVENTION VARIABLES (OR DUMMY VARIABLES); REGRESSION MODEL RESULTS; KEY ACTIVITIES IN BUILDING A MULTIPLE REGRESSION MODEL; CAUTIONS ABOUT REGRESSION MODELS; SUMMARY; NOTES; Chapter 7 ARIMA Models; PHASE 1: IDENTIFYING THE TENTATIVE MODEL; StationarityAnalysis of the Autocorrelation PlotsAn updated new edition of the comprehensive guide to better business forecasting Many companies still look at quantitative forecasting methods with suspicion, but a new awareness is emerging across many industries as more businesses and professionals recognize the value of integrating demand data (point-of-sale and syndicated scanner data) into the forecasting process. Demand-Driven Forecasting equips you with solutions that can sense, shape, and predict future demand using highly sophisticated methods and tools. From a review of the most basic forecasting methods to the most aWiley and SAS business series.Economic forecastingBusiness forecastingForecastingEconomic forecasting.Business forecasting.Forecasting.330.01/12Chase Charles967720Wiley Online Library (Servicio en línea)MiAaPQMiAaPQMiAaPQBOOK9910139044003321Demand-driven forecasting2244985UNINA