05216oam 22012374 450 991013670870332120230808200025.01-4755-4306-9(CKB)3710000000907180(MiAaPQ)EBC4723283(IMF)WPIEA2016195(EXLCZ)99371000000090718020020129d2016 uf 0engurcnu||||||||rdacontentrdamediardacarrierU.S. Monetary Policy Normalization and Global Interest Rates /Carlos Caceres, Yan Carriere-Swallow, Ishak Demir, Bertrand GrussWashington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,2016.1 online resource (47 pages) illustrations, tablesIMF Working Papers1-4755-4305-0 1-4755-4324-7 Includes bibliographical references.As the Federal Reserve continues to normalize its monetary policy, this paper studies the impact of U.S. interest rates on rates in other countries. We find a modest but nontrivial pass-through from U.S. to domestic short-term interest rates on average. We show that, to a large extent, this comovement reflects synchronized business cycles. However, there is important heterogeneity across countries, and we find evidence of limited monetary autonomy in some cases. The co-movement of longer term interest rates is larger and more pervasive. We distinguish between U.S. interest rate movements that surprise markets versus those that are anticipated, and find that most countries receive greater spillovers from the former. We also distinguish between movements in the U.S. term premium and the expected path of risk-free rates, concluding that countries respond differently to these shocks. Finally, we explore the determinants of monetary autonomy and find strong evidence for the role of exchange rate flexibility, capital account openness, but also for other factors, such as dollarization of financial system liabilities, and the credibility of fiscal and monetary policy.IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;No. 2016/195Monetary policyUnited StatesInterest ratesUnited StatesBusiness cyclesUnited StatesBanks and BankingimfForeign ExchangeimfMacroeconomicsimfEstimationimfSimulation MethodsimfBusiness FluctuationsimfCyclesimfInterest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and EffectsimfMoney and Interest Rates: Forecasting and SimulationimfMonetary PolicyimfCentral Banks and Their PoliciesimfInternational Business CyclesimfBanksimfDepository InstitutionsimfMicro Finance InstitutionsimfMortgagesimfExternalitiesimfFinanceimfCurrencyimfForeign exchangeimfBankingimfLong term interest ratesimfYield curveimfShort term interest ratesimfExchange rate flexibilityimfFinancial servicesimfSpilloversimfFinancial sector policy and analysisimfInterest ratesimfBanks and bankingimfInternational financeimfUnited StatesimfMonetary policyInterest ratesBusiness cyclesBanks and BankingForeign ExchangeMacroeconomicsEstimationSimulation MethodsBusiness FluctuationsCyclesInterest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and EffectsMoney and Interest Rates: Forecasting and SimulationMonetary PolicyCentral Banks and Their PoliciesInternational Business CyclesBanksDepository InstitutionsMicro Finance InstitutionsMortgagesExternalitiesFinanceCurrencyForeign exchangeBankingLong term interest ratesYield curveShort term interest ratesExchange rate flexibilityFinancial servicesSpilloversFinancial sector policy and analysisInterest ratesBanks and bankingInternational finance332.4973Caceres Carlos882223Carriere-Swallow Yan1450031Demir Ishak1451145Gruss Bertrand1151118DcWaIMFBOOK9910136708703321U.S. Monetary Policy Normalization and Global Interest Rates3651075UNINA