Pandemics : insurance and social protection / / editors, María del Carmen Boado-Penas, Julia Eisenberg, Şule Şahin

• Record Nr.: UNISA996466419903316
• Autore: Boado-Penas María del Carmen
• Pubbl/distr/stampa: Cham, : Springer International Publishing AG, 2021
• ISBN: 3-030-78334-0
• Descrizione fisica: 1 online resource (xx, 298 pages) : illustrations (some color)
• Collana: Springer Actuarial
• Altri autori (Persone): Boado-PenasMaría del Carmen; EisenbergJulia; Şahin‬‬‬Şule
• Soggetti: Epidemics; Insurance - Mathematical models; Insurance - Statistical methods; Social security; Assegurances; Models matemàtics; Estadística matemática; Seguretat social; Epidèmies; Llibres electrònics
• Lingua di pubblicazione: Inglese
• Formato: Materiale a stampa
• Livello bibliografico: Monografia
• Note generali: Description based upon print version of record.
• Nota di contenuto: Intro -- Preface -- Acknowledgements -- Contents -- Contributors -- 1 COVID-19: A Trigger for Innovations in Insurance? -- 1.1 Introduction -- 1.2 Discussions from the Perspective of Insurance and Social Protection -- 1.2.1 Commercial Insurance -- 1.2.2 The Role of the Governments and Social Protection -- 1.3 Listening to the Wind of Change -- References -- 2 Epidemic Compartmental Models and Their Insurance Applications -- 2.1 Introduction -- 2.2 Compartmental Models in Epidemiology -- 2.2.1 SIR Model -- 2.2.2 Other Compartmental Models -- 2.3 Epidemic Insurance; 2.3.1 Annuities and Insurance Benefits -- 2.3.2 Reserves -- 2.3.3 Further Extensions -- 2.3.4 Case Studies: COVID-19 -- 2.4 Resource ; Management -- 2.4.1 Pillar I: Regional and Aggregate Resources Demand Forecast -- 2.4.2 Pillar II: Centralised Stockpiling and Distribution -- 2.4.3 Pillar III: Centralised Resources Allocation -- 2.5 Conclusion -- References -- 3 Some Investigations with a Simple Actuarial Model for Infections Such as COVID-19 -- 3.1 Introduction -- 3.2 Multiple State Actuarial Models -- 3.3 A Simple Daily Model for Infection -- 3.4 Comparisons with the SIR Model; 3.5 Enhancements for COVID-19 and Initial Assumptions -- 3.6 Estimating Parameters Model 1 -- 3.7 Estimating Parameters Model 2 -- 3.8 Comments on Results of Models 1 and 2 -- 3.9 Further Extensions: Models 3 and 4 -- 3.10 Comments on Results of Models 3 and 4 -- 3.11 Projection Models -- 3.12 Problems and Unknowns -- 3.13 Other Countries -- 3.14 Conclusions -- References -- 4 Stochastic Mortality Models and Pandemic Shocks -- 4.1 Stochastic Mortality Models and the COVID-19 Shock -- 4.2 The Impact of COVID-19 on Mortality Rates; 4.3 Stochastic Mortality Models and Pandemics: Single-Population Models -- 4.3.1 Discrete-Time Single Population Models -- 4.3.2 Continuous-Time Single-Population Models -- 4.4 Stochastic Mortality Models and Pandemics: Multi-population -- 4.4.1 Discrete-Time Models -- 4.4.2 Continuous-Time Models -- 4.5 A Continuous-Time Multi-population Model with Jumps -- 4.6 Conclusions -- References -- 5 A Mortality Model for Pandemics and Other Contagion Events -- 5.1 Introduction -- 5.2 Highlights of Methodology and Findings -- 5.2.1 Summary of Methodology -- 5.2.2 Summary of Findings; 5.3 Semiparametric Regression in MCMC -- 5.3.1 MCMC Parameter Shrinkage -- 5.3.2 Spline Regressions -- 5.3.3 Why Shrinkage? -- 5.3.4 Cross Validation in MCMC -- 5.4 Model Details -- 5.4.1 Formulas -- 5.4.2 Fitting Process -- 5.5 Results -- 5.5.1 Extensions: Generalisation, Projections and R Coding -- 5.6 Conclusions -- References -- 6 Risk-Sharing and Contingent Premia in the Presence of Systematic Risk: The Case Study of the UK COVID-19 Economic Losses -- 6.1 Introduction -- 6.2 Risk Levels and Systematic Risk in Insurance -- 6.3 Mathematical Setup -- 6.3.1 Probability Space; 6.3.2 Insurance Preliminaries
• Sommario/riassunto: This open access book collects expert contributions on actuarial modelling and related topics, from machine learning to legal aspects, and reflects on possible insurance designs during an epidemic/pandemic. Starting by considering the impulse given by COVID-19 to the insurance industry and to actuarial research, the text covers compartment models, mortality changes during a pandemic, risk-sharing in the presence of low probability events, group testing, compositional data analysis for detecting data inconsistencies, behaviouristic aspects in fighting a pandemic, and insurers' legal problems, amongst others. Concluding with an essay by a practicing actuary on the applicability of the methods proposed, this interdisciplinary book is aimed at actuaries as well as readers with a background in mathematics, economics, statistics, finance, epidemiology, or sociology.