Iran's nuclear future : critical U.S. policy choices / / Lynn E. Davis [et al.]

• Record Nr.: UNISA996320213003316
• Autore: Davis Lynn E (Lynn Etheridge), <1943->
• Pubbl/distr/stampa: Santa Monica, CA, : RAND, 2011
• ISBN: 1-283-13586-8; 9786613135865; 0-8330-5308-6
• Descrizione fisica: 1 online resource (xxv, 125 pages) : illustrations, color maps (digital, PDF file)
• Collana: Rand Corporation monograph series ; ; MG-1087-AF
• Disciplina: 355.02/170955
• Soggetti: Nuclear arms control - Iran; Nuclear weapons - Iran; Iran Foreign relations United States; Iran Strategic aspects; United States Foreign relations Iran; United States Military policy
• Lingua di pubblicazione: Inglese
• Formato: Materiale a stampa
• Livello bibliografico: Monografia
• Note generali: "MG-1087-AF".; "Prepared for the United States Air Force."; "RAND Project Air Force."
• Nota di bibliografia: Includes bibliographical references.
• Nota di contenuto: Cover; Title Page; Copyright; Preface; Contents; Figures; Tables; Summary; Acknowledgments; Abbreviations; Chapter One Introduction; Study Objectives and Scope; Analysis Framework for the New Strategic Environment; Step 1: Conduct Regional Analyses; Step 2: Define Ways to Achieve U.S. Goals for Nuclear Dissuasion,Deterrence, and Reassurance; Step 3: Define and Assess Critical U.S. Policy Choices; Step 4: Describe U.S. Air Force Contributions; How Our Analytical Approach Differs from Others; Organization of This Monograph; Chapter Two Influencing Iran; Iran's National Security Interests; Ensuring Regime Survival Protecting the Homeland Against All External Threats; Expanding Regional Influence; Can Iran Be Expected to Act Rationally?; Iran's Nuclear Program: Prospects and Uncertainties; Internal Debate on the Future of Iran's Nuclear Program; Chapter Three Dissuading Iran from Nuclear Weaponization; Iranian Actions That the ; United States Wishes to Dissuade; Current U.S. Policies Toward Iran's Nuclear Program; Critical U.S. Policy Choices; Raise Costs; Provide Incentives; Conclusion; Chapter Four Deterring a Nuclear-Armed Iran; Iran's Military Behavior and Planning; Historical Military Behavior Military Doctrine; Conventional Capabilities; Military Exercises; Paths to Conflict; Conflict in Response to International Pressures and Actions Perceived as Acts of War; Conflict in Response to a U.S. or Israeli Attack Against Iran's Nuclear Facilities; Conflict to Expand Regional Influence or Consolidate Domestic Power; Iran's Potential Use of Nuclear Weapons; Current U.S. Policies and Capabilities; Policy Choices for Deterring Iran's Use of Nuclear Weapons Against U.S. Military Forces; Deter by Managing Conflict Escalation; Deter by Raising the Costs of Using Nuclear Weapons by Threat of Retaliation Deter by Denying Iran the Benefits of Using Nuclear Weapons; Policy Choices for Deterring Iran's Use of Nuclear Weapons Against U.S. Regional Partners; Conclusion; Chapter Five Reassuring U.S. Regional Partners; The Setting; Views of the GCC States; Views of Israel; Current U.S. Policies for Reassurance; U.S. Reassurance Goal: Ensure Confidence in Credibility of a U.S. Nuclear Deterrent; Explicit and Public Security Guarantees; U.S. Conventional Forces; U.S. Nuclear-Related Military Activities; U.S. Nuclear Guarantee; Conclusion Chapter Four Approaches to Influencing Iran; Approaches to Influencing Iran; Chapter : 7; Air Force Contributions and Preparing for the Future; The Way Ahead; Appendixes; A. Context for U.S. Reassurance Strategies: GCC; B. Context for U.S. Reassurance Strategies: Israel; Bibliography
• Sommario/riassunto: As Iran's nuclear program evolves, U.S. decision makers will confront a series of critical policy choices involving complex considerations and policy trade-offs. These policy choices could involve dissuading Iran from developing nuclear weapons; deterring Iran from using its nuclear weapons, if it were to acquire them; and reassuring U.S. regional partners. The U.S. Air Force will need to prepare to carry out whatever policies are chosen.