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Record Nr. |
UNINA9911097253603321 |
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Autore |
Garcia-Saltos Roberto |
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Titolo |
Adding Indonesia to the Global Projection Model / / Roberto Garcia-Saltos, Douglas Laxton, Michal Andrle, Haris Munandar, Charles Freedman, Danny Hermawan |
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Pubbl/distr/stampa |
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Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2009 |
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ISBN |
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9786612844911 |
9781462387038 |
1462387039 |
9781452752075 |
1452752079 |
9781282844919 |
1282844911 |
9781451941715 |
1451941714 |
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Edizione |
[1st ed.] |
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Descrizione fisica |
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Collana |
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Altri autori (Persone) |
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AndrleMichal |
FreedmanCharles |
HermawanDanny |
LaxtonDouglas |
MunandarHaris |
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Disciplina |
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Soggetti |
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Economic forecasting - Indonesia - Econometric models |
Economic forecasting - United States - Econometric models |
Economic forecasting - Europe - Econometric models |
Economic forecasting - Japan - Econometric models |
Inflation (Finance) - Indonesia - Econometric models |
Inflation (Finance) - United States - Econometric models |
Inflation (Finance) - Europe - Econometric models |
Inflation (Finance) - Japan - Econometric models |
Monetary policy - Indonesia - Econometric models |
Monetary policy - United States - Econometric models |
Monetary policy - Europe - Econometric models |
Monetary policy - Japan - Econometric models |
Banks and Banking |
Currency |
Deflation |
Economic theory |
Finance |
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Foreign Exchange |
Foreign exchange |
Inflation |
Interest rates |
Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects |
Macroeconomics |
Macroeconomics: Production |
Output gap |
Price Level |
Prices |
Production and Operations Management |
Production |
Real exchange rates |
Real interest rates |
Short term interest rates |
Financial services |
United States |
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Lingua di pubblicazione |
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Formato |
Materiale a stampa |
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Livello bibliografico |
Monografia |
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Note generali |
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Nota di contenuto |
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Intro -- Contents -- I. Introduction -- A. Background -- B. A Brief Outline of Indonesian Economic Developments Over The Sample Period -- II. Benchmark Model -- A. Background -- B. The Specification of The Model -- B.1 Observable variables and data definitions -- B.2 Stochastic processes and model definitions -- B.3 Behavorial equations -- B.4 Cross correlations of disturbances -- III. Extending the Model to Include Financial-Real Linkages -- A. Background -- B. Model Specication Incorporating the US Bank Lending TighteningVariable -- V. Confronting the Model with the Data -- A. Bayesian Estimation -- B. Results -- B.1 Estimates of coeficients -- B.2 Estimates of standard deviation of structural shocks and cross correlations -- B.3 RMSEs -- B.4 Impulse response functions -- VI. Concluding Remarks -- IV. Modifications of the Model for the Indonesian Economy -- References -- Appendix: GPM Data Definitions -- Figures -- 1. Indonesia - Historical Data [1] -- 2. Indonesia - Historical Data [2] -- 3. Indonesia - Historical Data [3] -- 4. Comparison CDS Emerging Countries -- 5. Indonesia Historical Inflation Graph -- 6. Domestic Demand Shock -- 7. Domestic Price Shock -- 8. Domestic Interest Rate Shock -- 9. Domestic Real Exchange Rate Shock -- 10. Shock to the Domestic Target Rate of Inflation -- 11. Demand Shock in the US -- 12. BLT Shock in the US -- Tables -- 1. Results from Posterior Maximization -- 2. Results from Posterior Parameters (standard deviation of structural shocks) -- 3. Results from Posterior Parameters (correlation of structural shocks) -- 4. Root Mean Squared Errors. |
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Sommario/riassunto |
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This is the fifth of a series of papers that are being written as part of a larger project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit to which economists have access for studying both own-country and cross- |
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country linkages. In this paper, we add Indonesia to a previously estimated small quarterly projection model of the US, euro area, and Japanese economies. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques, which provide a very efficient way of imposing restrictions to produce both plausible dynamics and sensible forecasting properties. |
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