Computing risk for oil prospects : principles and programs / / John W. Harbaugh, John C. Davis, Johannes Wendebourg

• Record Nr.: UNINA9911006670303321
• Autore: Harbaugh John Warvelle <1926->
• Pubbl/distr/stampa: Oxford, : Pergamon, 1995
• ISBN: 1-281-07193-5; 9786611071936; 0-08-052950-X
• Edizione: [1st ed.]
• Descrizione fisica: 1 online resource (467 p.)
• Collana: Computer methods in the geosciences ; ; v. 14
• Altri autori (Persone): DavisJohn C; WendebourgJohannes
• Disciplina: 622/.1828
• Soggetti: Petroleum - Prospecting - Data processing; Risk assessment - Data processing
• Lingua di pubblicazione: Inglese
• Formato: Materiale a stampa
• Livello bibliografico: Monografia
• Note generali: Description based upon print version of record.
• Nota di bibliografia: Includes bibliographical references and index.
• Nota di contenuto: Front Cover; Computing Risk for Oil Prospects:Principles and Programs; Copyright Page; CONTENTS; Foreword; Preface: Getting Things Rolling; Acknowledgments; Chapter 1. The Challenge of Risk Assessment; THE NATURE OF EXPLORATION; DEFINING PROBABILITIES; GEOLOGICAL UNCERTAINTY AND OIL OCCURRENCE; REGIONAL HYDROCARBON ENDOWMENT; PRINCIPAL PREMISES OF THIS BOOK; Chapter 2. Field Size Distributions; ESTIMATING "Q"; OIL FIELD POPULATIONS; STATISTICS OF FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTIONS; CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY PLOTS; CAUTION: FUTURE DISCOVERIES; Chapter 3. Success, Sequence, and Gambler's Ruin; SUCCESS RATIOS AND DRY HOLE PROBABILITIESLONG -TERM LUCK AND BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION; Chapter 4. Estimating Discovery Size from Prospect Size; STATISTICAL CORRELATIONS BETWEEN PROPERTIES; ESTIMATING VOLUMES FROM SEISMIC MAPS; Chapter 5. Outcome Probabilities and Success Ratios; GEOLOGY AND DRILLING RESULTS; BAYESIAN REVISION OF REGIONAL SUCCESS RATIOS; BAYESIAN REVISION OF DISTRIBUTIONS; Chapter 6. Modeling Prospects; APPEAL OF THE SIMULATION APPROACH; STEPS IN MONTE CARLO SIMULATION; DISTRIBUTIONS AND PARAMETERS; ARE GEOLOGIC PROPERTIES ; INDEPENDENT?; Chapter 7. Mapping Properties and UncertaintiesCOMPUTER CONTOURING; HOW CONTOUR MAPS ARE MADE; GEOSTATISTICS IN RISK ASSESSMENT; Chapter 8. Discriminating Discoveries and Dry Holes; COMBINING GEOLOGICAL VARIABLES; ASSESSING A NEW AREA; UPDATING ASSESSMENTS; EXPLORING MAGYARSTAN TARGET AREA; THE IMMATURESTAGE; THE INTERMEDIATE STAGE; THE MATURE STAGE; THE FINAL STAGE; Chapter 9. Forecasting Cash Flow for a Prospect; FINANCIAL OVERVIEW; DISCOUNTED NET CASH FLOW ANALYSIS; USING CASHFLOW; OUTPUT FROM CASHFLOW; EXAMPLE APPLICATIONS OF CASHFLOW; Chapter 10. The Worth of Money; A DRY HOLE VERSUS A DISCOVERYChapter 11. RATS, Decision Tables, and Trees; RATs LINK OUTCOMES WITH RISK; HOW RATs TREAT INFORMATION; EXAMPLE RISK ANALYSIS TABLES; DECISION AIDS FOR ACTIONS; CONSTRUCTING DECISION TABLES; DECISION TREES; OVERVIEW AND A LOOK TO THE FUTURE; Chapter 12. Bringing it Together; RISKING THE ROSKOFF PROSPECT; THE PRIZE OFFERED; TROYSKA AND ROSKOFF AREAS COMPARED; ESTIMATING ROSKOFF'S DRY HOLE PROBABILITY; PROBABILITIES ATTACHED TO FIELD VOLUMES; ROSKOFF PROSPECT FINANCIAL ANALYSIS; SOME FINAL POINTS; Bibliography; Appendix A - SOFTWARE INSTALLATION of RISK: Software to perform probabilistic assessments and financial calculations in Computing Risk for Oil ProspectsAppendix B - RISKSTAT MANUAL: Linked computer programs that perform statistical analyses in RISK; Appendix C - RISKMAP MANUAL: Linked computer programs that perform the mapping function in RISK; Appendix D - RISKTAB MANUAL: Linked computer programs that perform financial calculations in RISK; Index
• Sommario/riassunto: The petroleum industry is enduring difficult financial times because of the continuing depressed price of crude oil on the world market. This has caused major corporate restructuring and reductions in staff throughout the industry. Because oil exploration must now be done with fewer people under more difficult economic constraints, it is essential that the most effective and efficient procedures be used. Computing Risk for Oil Prospects describes how prospect risk assessment - predicting the distribution of financial gains or losses that may result from the drilling of an exploration we