1.

Record Nr.

UNINA9910970501103321

Autore

Bayoumi Tamim

Titolo

Spillovers Across NAFTA / / Tamim Bayoumi, Andrew Swiston

Pubbl/distr/stampa

Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2008

ISBN

9786613821560

9781462370948

1462370942

9781452714790

1452714797

9781282448377

1282448374

9781451913187

1451913184

Edizione

[1st ed.]

Descrizione fisica

1 online resource (34 p.)

Collana

IMF Working Papers

Altri autori (Persone)

SwistonAndrew

Disciplina

338.9171073

Soggetti

Fiscal policy - Canada

Business cycle

Cholesky decomposition

Economics

Economy

Gross domestic product

North american free trade agreement

United states

Variance

Vector autoregression

Weighted arithmetic mean

North America Economic integration

North America Commercial treaties

Lingua di pubblicazione

Inglese

Formato

Materiale a stampa

Livello bibliografico

Monografia

Note generali

"January 2008."

Nota di bibliografia

Includes bibliographical references (p. 18-19).

Nota di contenuto

Contents; I. Introduction; II. Identifying Spillovers in a Vector



Autoregression; III. Where do Shocks to Canada and Mexico Originate?; A. The Evolution of Domestic Shocks and Correlations Over Time; B. Size of Spillovers to Canada; C. Size of Spillovers to Mexico; IV. By What Channels Are Spillovers Transmitted?; A. Measuring the Channels; B. Sources of Spillovers to Canada; C. Sources of Spillovers to Mexico; V. Conclusions; References; Tables; 1. Canada: Correlations, Variances, and Covariances of VAR Residuals; 2. Mexico: Correlations, Variances, and Covariances of VAR Residuals

3. Canada: Variance Decompositions of Real GDP4. Mexico: Variance Decompositions of Real GDP; Figures; 1. Measures of U.S. Integration with Canada and Mexico; 2. Canada: Spillovers Across Eight VARs; 3. Canada: Spillovers Across Eight VARs by Subsample; 4. Domestic Shocks and Canadian Responses by Subsample; 5. Mexico: Spillovers Across Eight VARs; 6. Mexico: Spillovers Across Eight VARs, 1996-2007; 7. Domestic Shocks and Mexican Responses by Subsample; 8. Canada: Decomposition of Spillovers; 9. Canada: Decomposition of Spillovers by Subsample; 10. Mexico: Decomposition of Spillovers

Sommario/riassunto

This paper examines linkages across North America by estimating the size of spillovers from the major regions of the world-the United States, euro area, Japan, and the rest of the world-to Canada and Mexico, and decomposing the impact of these spillovers into trade, commodity price, and financial market channels. For Canada, a one percent shock to U.S. real GDP shifts Canadian real GDP by some ¾ of a percentage point in the same direction- with financial spillovers more important than trade in recent decades. Thus, a large proportion of the reduction in Canadian output volatility since the 1980s can be accounted for by the "Great Moderation" in U.S. growth. Before 1996, domestic volatility in Mexico swamped the contribution of external factors to the business cycle. After 1996, the response of Mexican GDP is 1½ times the size of the U.S. shock-"when the U.S. sneezes, Mexico catches a cold". These spillovers are transmitted through both trade and financial channels.