Global catastrophes and trends : the next fifty years / / Vaclav Smil

• Record Nr.: UNINA9910966157603321
• Autore: Smil Vaclav
• Pubbl/distr/stampa: Cambridge, MA, : MIT Press, c2008
• ISBN: 9780262291620; 0262291622; 9780262283878; 0262283875; 9781435654990; 1435654994
• Edizione: [1st ed.]
• Descrizione fisica: 1 online resource (322 p.)
• Disciplina: 363.34
• Soggetti: Environmental risk assessment; Natural disasters
• Lingua di pubblicazione: Inglese
• Formato: Materiale a stampa
• Livello bibliografico: Monografia
• Note generali: Bibliographic Level Mode of Issuance: Monograph
• Nota di bibliografia: Includes bibliographical references and indexes.
• Nota di contenuto: Intro -- Contents -- Preface -- 1 How (Not) to Look Ahead -- 2 Fatal Discontinuities -- 3 Unfolding Trends -- 4 Environmental Change -- 5 Dealing with Risk and Uncertainty -- Appendix A Units and Abbreviations, Prefixes -- Appendix B Acronyms -- References -- Name Index -- Subject Index.
• Sommario/riassunto: From the Publisher: Fundamental change occurs most often in one of two ways: as a "fatal discontinuity," a sudden catastrophic event that is potentially world changing, or as a persistent, gradual trend. Global catastrophes include volcanic eruptions, viral pandemics, wars, and large-scale terrorist attacks; trends are demographic, environmental, economic, and political shifts that unfold over time. In this provocative book, scientist Vaclav Smil takes a wide-ranging, interdisciplinary look at the catastrophes and trends the next fifty years may bring. This is not a book of forecasts or scenarios but one that reminds us to pay attention to, and plan for, the consequences of apparently unpredictable events and the ultimate direction of long-term trends. Smil first looks at rare but cataclysmic events, both natural and human-produced, then at trends of global importance: the transition from ; fossil fuels to other energy sources; demographic and political shifts in Europe, Japan, Russia, China, the United States, and Islamic nations; the battle for global primacy; and growing economic and social inequality. He also considers environmental change-in some ways an amalgam of sudden discontinuities and gradual change-and assesses the often misunderstood complexities of global warming. Global Catastrophes and Trends does not come down on the side of either doom-and-gloom scenarios or techno-euphoria. Instead, relying on long-term historical perspectives and a distaste for the rigid compartmentalization of knowledge, Smil argues that understanding change will help us reverse negative trends and minimize the risk of catastrophe.