1.

Record Nr.

UNINA9910965940503321

Autore

Cihak Martin

Titolo

Writing Clearly : : ECB’s Monetary Policy Communication / / Martin Cihak, Katerina Smídková, Ales Bulir

Pubbl/distr/stampa

Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2008

ISBN

9786612842030

9781462391103

1462391109

9781452714769

1452714762

9781451871104

1451871104

9781282842038

128284203X

Edizione

[1st ed.]

Descrizione fisica

1 online resource (36 p.)

Collana

IMF Working Papers

IMF working paper ; ; WP/08/252

Altri autori (Persone)

BulirAles

SmídkováKaterina

Disciplina

332.11094

Soggetti

Banks and banking, Central - Europe - Econometric models

Communication - Europe - Econometric models

Monetary policy - Europe - Econometric models

Banking

Banks and Banking

Central bank policy rate

Communications in revenue administration

Deflation

Economic Forecasting

Economic forecasting

Forecasting and Other Model Applications

Forecasting

Inflation targeting

Inflation

Interest rates

Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

Macroeconomics

Monetary economics

Monetary Policy

Monetary policy



Money and Monetary Policy

Price Level

Prices

Public finance & taxation

Public Finance

Revenue

Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General

Czech Republic

Lingua di pubblicazione

Inglese

Formato

Materiale a stampa

Livello bibliografico

Monografia

Note generali

Description based upon print version of record.

Nota di bibliografia

Includes bibliographical references.

Nota di contenuto

Contents; I. Introduction; II. Motivation and Literature Overview; A. Communicating Clearly; B. Literature on Monetary Policy Communication; III. Methodology and Data; A. Methodology ("Central Bank Watching for Dummies"); Tables; 1. Slope Coefficient in a Regression of Actual and Forecasted Policy Rate Changes; Figures; 1. Correlation of Actual and Forecasted Policy Rate Changes; 2. GARCH Estimate of the Policy Rule for the ECB; 3. Parameterization Overview; B. Data; 2. Euro Area: Actual Inflation, Inflation Targets, and Inflation Expectations

4. Inflation Factors and Their Serial Correlation5. Comparison with the KOF MPC Index; C. ECB Watching; 3. ECB Bulletins: Inflation Factors; 4. ECB: Central Bank Watching; IV. Results; A. Press Statements Only; B. Monthly Bulletins: Shock Descriptions; 5. Press Statements Only; C. Monthly Bulletins: Shock Descriptions and Forecast Risk Assessment; 6. ECB Bulletin, Shock Description, but No Forecast Risk Assessment; D. Monthly Bulletins: Adding Monetary Pillar Information; 7. ECB Bulletin, All Shocks; E. Summary Discussion: When Could the Public Get Confused?; 8. Monetary Pillar

9. Confusing Communication: Robustness ChecksF. Comparison with Other Studies; V. Conclusions; References

Sommario/riassunto

The paper presents a methodology for measuring the clarity of central bank communication, illustrating it with the case of the European Central Bank (ECB) in 1999-2007. The analysis identifies the ECB's written communication as clear about 95 percent of instances, which is comparable to, or even better than, other central banks for which a similar analysis is available. We also find that the additional information contained in the ECB's Monthly Bulletins helps to improve communication clarity compared to ECB's press releases. In particular, the Bulletins contain useful clarifying information on individual inflation factors and the overall forecast risk; in contrast, the bulletin's communication on monetary shocks has a negative, albeit small, impact on clarity.