1.

Record Nr.

UNISOBE600200000258

Autore

Alfieri, Vittorio <1749-1803>

Titolo

Della tirannide / Vittorio Alfieri ; a cura di Giuseppe Izzi

Pubbl/distr/stampa

Roma, : Archivio Guido Izzi, 1985

Descrizione fisica

132 p. ; 21 cm

Collana

Biblioteca dell'Archivio ; 1

Lingua di pubblicazione

Italiano

Formato

Materiale a stampa

Livello bibliografico

Monografia

2.

Record Nr.

UNINA9910964633703321

Autore

Stavrev Emil

Titolo

Measures of Underlying Inflation in the Euro Area : : Assessment and Role for Informing Monetary Policy / / Emil Stavrev

Pubbl/distr/stampa

Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2006

ISBN

9786613830142

9781462361908

1462361900

9781452715834

1452715831

9781283517690

1283517698

9781451992021

1451992025

Edizione

[1st ed.]

Descrizione fisica

1 online resource (37 p.)

Collana

IMF Working Papers

Soggetti

Inflation (Finance) - Europe

Monetary policy - Europe

Currency

Deflation

Economic Forecasting

Economic forecasting

Energy: Demand and Supply

Exchange rates

Forecasting and Other Model Applications



Forecasting

Foreign Exchange

Foreign exchange

Inflation

Macroeconomics

Model Construction and Estimation

Model Evaluation and Selection

Monetary aggregates

Monetary economics

Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General

Money and Monetary Policy

Money supply

Oil prices

Price Level

Prices

Lingua di pubblicazione

Inglese

Formato

Materiale a stampa

Livello bibliografico

Monografia

Note generali

"August 2006."

Nota di bibliografia

Includes bibliographical references.

Nota di contenuto

""Contents""; ""I. INTRODUCTION""; ""II. TAXONOMY OF UNDERLYING INFLATION INDICATORS""; ""III. FEATURES OF THE INDICATORS""; ""IV. FORECASTING METHODOLOGY AND ASSESSMENT OF FORECASTING PERFORMANCE""; ""V. CONCLUDING REMARKS""; ""References""

Sommario/riassunto

The paper evaluates the 24-month ahead inflation forecasting performance of various indicators of underlying inflation and structural models. The inflation forecast errors resulting from model misspecification are larger than the errors resulting from forecasting of exogenous variables. Also, measures derived using the generalized dynamic factor model (GDFM) overperform other measures over the monetary policy horizon and are leading indicators of headline inflation. Trimmed means, although weaker than GDFM indicators, have good forecasting performance, while indicators by permanent exclusion underperform but provide useful information about short-term dynamics. The forecasting performance of theoretically-founded models that relate monetary aggregates, the output gap, and inflation improves with the time horizon but generally falls short of that of the GDFM. A composite measure of underlying inflation, derived by averaging the statistical indicators and the model-based estimates, improves forecast accuracy by eliminating bias and offers valuable insight about the distribution of risks.