Adding Indonesia to the Global Projection Model / / Roberto Garcia-Saltos, Douglas Laxton, Michal Andrle, Haris Munandar, Charles Freedman, Danny Hermawan

• Record Nr.: UNINA9910961803103321
• Autore: Garcia-Saltos Roberto
• Pubbl/distr/stampa: Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2009
• ISBN: 9786612844911; 9781462387038; 1462387039; 9781452752075; 1452752079; 9781282844919; 1282844911; 9781451941715; 1451941714
• Edizione: [1st ed.]
• Descrizione fisica: 57 p. : ill
• Collana: IMF Working Papers
• Altri autori (Persone): AndrleMichal; FreedmanCharles; HermawanDanny; LaxtonDouglas; MunandarHaris
• Disciplina: 339.53091724
• Soggetti: Economic forecasting - Indonesia - Econometric models; Economic forecasting - United States - Econometric models; Economic forecasting - Europe - Econometric models; Economic forecasting - Japan - Econometric models; Inflation (Finance) - Indonesia - Econometric models; Inflation (Finance) - United States - Econometric models; Inflation (Finance) - Europe - Econometric models; Inflation (Finance) - Japan - Econometric models; Monetary policy - Indonesia - Econometric models; Monetary policy - United States - Econometric models; Monetary policy - Europe - Econometric models; Monetary policy - Japan - Econometric models; Banks and Banking; Currency; Deflation; Economic theory; Finance; Foreign Exchange; Foreign exchange; Inflation; Interest rates; Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects; Macroeconomics; Macroeconomics: Production; Output gap; Price Level; Prices; Production and Operations Management; Production; Real exchange rates; Real interest rates; Short term interest rates; United States
• Lingua di pubblicazione: Inglese
• Formato: Materiale a stampa
• Livello bibliografico: Monografia
• Note generali: "November 2009."
• Nota di contenuto: Intro -- Contents -- I. Introduction -- A. Background -- B. A Brief Outline of Indonesian Economic Developments Over The Sample Period -- II. Benchmark Model -- A. Background -- B. The Specification of The Model -- B.1 Observable variables and data definitions -- B.2 Stochastic processes and model definitions -- B.3 Behavorial equations -- B.4 Cross correlations of disturbances -- III. Extending the Model to Include Financial-Real Linkages -- A. Background -- B. Model Specication Incorporating the US Bank Lending TighteningVariable -- V. Confronting the Model with the Data -- A. Bayesian Estimation -- B. Results -- B.1 Estimates of coeficients -- B.2 Estimates of standard deviation of structural shocks and cross correlations -- B.3 RMSEs -- B.4 Impulse response functions -- VI. Concluding Remarks -- IV. Modifications of the Model for the Indonesian Economy -- References -- Appendix: GPM Data Definitions -- Figures -- 1. Indonesia - Historical Data [1] -- 2. Indonesia - Historical Data [2] -- 3. Indonesia - Historical Data [3] -- 4. Comparison CDS Emerging Countries -- 5. Indonesia Historical Inflation Graph -- 6. Domestic Demand Shock -- 7. Domestic Price Shock -- 8. Domestic Interest Rate Shock -- 9. Domestic Real Exchange Rate Shock -- 10. Shock to the Domestic Target Rate of Inflation -- 11. Demand Shock in the US -- 12. BLT Shock in the US -- Tables -- 1. Results from Posterior Maximization -- 2. Results from Posterior Parameters (standard deviation of structural shocks) -- 3. Results from Posterior Parameters (correlation of structural shocks) -- 4. Root Mean Squared Errors.
• Sommario/riassunto: This is the fifth of a series of papers that are being written as part of a larger project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit to which economists have access for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In this paper, we add Indonesia to a previously ; estimated small quarterly projection model of the US, euro area, and Japanese economies. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques, which provide a very efficient way of imposing restrictions to produce both plausible dynamics and sensible forecasting properties.