Knowing, when you don't know : : using microsimulation models to assess the poverty and distributional impacts of macroeconomic shocks / / edited by Ambar Narayan, Carolina Sanchez-Peramo

• Record Nr.: UNINA9910958044503321
• Pubbl/distr/stampa: Washington, D.C. : , : World Bank, , c2011
• ISBN: 9786613491848; 9781283491846; 1283491842; 9780821389546; 0821389548
• Edizione: [1st ed.]
• Descrizione fisica: pages cm
• Collana: World Bank studies
• Altri autori (Persone): NarayanAmbar; Sánchez-PáramoCarolina
• Disciplina: 339.4/6015195
• Soggetti: Depressions; Poverty; Economics
• Lingua di pubblicazione: Inglese
• Formato: Materiale a stampa
• Livello bibliografico: Monografia
• Note generali: Description based upon print version of record.
• Nota di bibliografia: Includes bibliographical references.
• Nota di contenuto: Contents; List of Contributors; Acknowledgments; Foreword; 1. Assessing the Poverty and Distributional Impacts of the Financial Crisis with Microsimulations: An Overview of Country Studies; Financial Crisis and Its Impact on Poverty; Evaluating the Impact of the Crisis; The Methodology to Estimate Impacts Ex Ante; How the Approach Works; Defining the "Impact": Two Types of Countries; Simulating the Impact of Policy Changes; Caveats to the Approach; Results from Micro-Macro Simulations for Four Countries; Results for Type I Countries; Results for Type II Countries; Simulating the Impact of Policy ResponsesConclusion; 2. On Economy-Wide Shocks, Models and Politics; When Are Second-Round and Systemic Effects a First-Order Concern?; Implications; When Can Information Affect Government Behavior?; Conclusion and a Note on the World Bank; 3. The Distributional Consequences of the Economic and Financial Crisis of 2008-09: A Comment; Backdrop to the Issue of ; Distributional Consequences; Thinking about the Problem; The Guts of the U.S. Story; Some Basic Generalizations; The Current Crisis in Perspective; Results of Quick Post Crisis Surveys; Takeaway Observations of Relevance for Policy4. Stress Testing for the Poverty Impacts of the Next Crisis; Introduction; The Need for a Social Protection Assessment Program (SPAP); An Overview of the Workshop Papers and Presentations; An Assessment, and What's Missing; Conclusion; References; Figures; Figure 1.1: Scheme of the modeling process; Figure 1.2: Impacts in Type I and Type II countries; Figure 1.3: Percent change in sectoral employment between benchmark and crisis (2010); Figure 1.4: Percent change in household income between benchmark and crisis scenarios (2010); Figure 1.5: Percent change in poverty/inequality indicators between crisis and benchmarkFigure 1.6: Percent losses in income for the general population (left) and the crisis-vulnerable (right); Figure 1.7: Percentage of poor and crisis-vulnerable households in rural areas; Figure 1.8: Percentage of households with low-skilled heads; Figure 1.9: Growth incidence curves: percent change in income (relative to the benchmark) due to crisis; Figure 1.10: Transitions across deciles of per capita income (percent of households in each decile); Figure 1.11: Macroeconomic projections for Mexico (2008-09 are actual observations 2010-11 are forecasts); Figure 1.12: Growth incidence curve for Mexico (2008-09); Figure 1.13: Transitions across deciles in Mexico; Figure 1.14: Growth incidence curves for Mexico (2010-11); Figure 1.15: Transitions across deciles for the period 2010-11; Figure 2.1: The welfare impact of food price changes in the 1997 Indonesian crisis across households; Figure 2.2: The pattern of change in deposits, by size and ownership of deposits, in the lead up to the Argentine financial crisis; Figure 3.1: The top percentile (1%) of U.S. income (incomes above US368,000 in 2008)
• Sommario/riassunto: Economists have long sought to predict how macroeconomic shocks willaffect individual welfare. Macroeconomic data and forecasts are easilyavailable when crises strike. But policy action requires not onlyunderstanding the magnitude of a macro shock, but also identifyingwhich households or individuals are being hurt by (or benefit from) thecrisis.A popular solution is to extrapolate the welfare impact of a shockfrom the historical response of income or consumption poverty tochanges in output, by estimating an 'elasticity' of poverty togrowth. Although this method provides an estimate for the agg