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Record Nr. |
UNINA9910957188403321 |
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Autore |
Laxton Douglas |
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Titolo |
Developing a Structured Forecasting and Policy Analysis System to Support Inflation-Forecast Targeting (IFT) / / Douglas Laxton, Alasdair Scott, David Rose |
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Pubbl/distr/stampa |
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Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2009 |
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ISBN |
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9786612842863 |
9781462314409 |
1462314406 |
9781282842861 |
1282842862 |
9781451872125 |
1451872127 |
9781451995343 |
1451995342 |
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Edizione |
[1st ed.] |
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Descrizione fisica |
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Collana |
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Altri autori (Persone) |
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Disciplina |
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Soggetti |
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Economic forecasting |
Inflation targeting |
Communications in revenue administration |
Deflation |
Economic Forecasting |
Forecasting and Other Model Applications |
Forecasting |
General Aggregative Models: General |
Income economics |
Inflation |
Labor economics |
Labor Economics: General |
Labor |
Labour |
Macroeconomics |
National accounts |
National income |
Price Level |
Prices |
Public finance & taxation |
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Public Finance |
Revenue |
Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General |
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Lingua di pubblicazione |
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Formato |
Materiale a stampa |
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Livello bibliografico |
Monografia |
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Note generali |
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Bibliographic Level Mode of Issuance: Monograph |
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Nota di bibliografia |
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Includes bibliographical references. |
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Nota di contenuto |
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Intro -- CONTENTS -- I. Introduction -- II. Developing a Decision-Making Process -- III. Benefits of a Successful IFT Regime -- IV. Critical Path For Developing A Structured FPAS -- V. The Quarterly Projection Exercise -- VI. The Core Model -- VII. The Role of Models in the FPAS -- VIII. On the Evolution and Development of the FPAS -- Text Figures -- 1. The Role of Models in the Forecast Process -- 2. From Policy Issues to Policy Recommendations -- 3. How Several Models can be Combined to Impose Consistency -- Appendix Figures -- 4. A Possible Reporting Structure -- 5. Links Between Different Databases -- 6. The Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism -- 7. Inflation Expectations 10-Years-Ahead in the United Kingdom -- Appendix Tables -- 1. Estimation of a Model with Model-Consistent Measures of Potential GDP -- 2. Notation: Time Periods Correspond to Calendar Quarters. |
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Sommario/riassunto |
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This paper presents a basic plan for developing a Forecast and Policy Analysis System designed to support an inflation-forecast targeting regime at a central bank. It includes discussion of the development of data management and reporting processes; the creation of a forecast team and the development of human capital; the implementation of a simple model, plus possible extensions; and the management of regular economic projections. We emphasize that it is better to implement simple models earlier and use them well, rather than wait in an attempt to develop an all-encompassing model. |
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