will be followed by accelerated care labor growth among the impaired and dysfunctional elderly. Over time, the older adults with care demand but without care supply will gradually increase, nearly doubling by 2058 compared to 2022. At present, family care is still the main eldercare supply mode among aging population in China, accounting for up to 94% of the total. Through comparing the predicted demand and supply, the total eldercare labor shortfall will increase 72.3% from 2020 to 2035. It is recommended that on the one hand, eldercare labor demand in China can be reduced from the origin by improving the health of the population all life circle, and also can be substituted by innovating supply models including artificial intelligence and smart elderly care; on the other hand, the effective supply of elderly care labor can be expanded by building a modern care service system to develop care market and care economy, improving the long-term care insurance system to promote the payment ability of the care users, supporting family career and care volunteers, training more care practitioners with higher professional ethics, and introducing reasonable salary mechanism for care work to improve care quantity and quality. |