Elections and exit polling / / [edited by] Fritz J. Scheuren, Wendy Alvey

• Record Nr.: UNINA9910877633403321
• Pubbl/distr/stampa: Hoboken, N.J., : John Wiley & Sons, c2008
• ISBN: 1-281-74432-8; 9786611744328; 0-470-39945-7; 0-470-39944-9
• Descrizione fisica: 1 online resource (333 p.)
• Altri autori (Persone): ScheurenFritz; AlveyWendy
• Disciplina: 324.973
• Soggetti: Exit polling (Elections); Voting research; Election forecasting - Data processing
• Lingua di pubblicazione: Inglese
• Formato: Materiale a stampa
• Livello bibliografico: Monografia
• Note generali: Description based upon print version of record.
• Nota di bibliografia: Includes bibliographical references and indexes.
• Nota di contenuto: Elections and Exit Polling; Contents; Preface; Acknowledgments; Contributors; 1 Introduction; 1.1 INTRODUCTION; 1.2 DEFINITIONS; 1.3 BRIEF HISTORY; 1.4 A DAY IN THE LIFE OF AN EXIT POLL; 1.4.1 Excerpt from Election Night Estimation; 1.5 THEORY AND METHODOLOGY; 1.6 RECENT ELECTORAL APPLICATIONS; 1.7 SOME MAJOR LIMITATIONS; 1.8 RECOMMENDATIONS AND A FEW PREDICTIONS; 1.9 REFERENCES; 2 The Infamous 2000 Election; 2.1 INTRODUCTION; 2.2 ANALYSIS: LOOKING BACK; 2.2.1 Excerpt from: Reliability of the Uncertified Ballots in the 2000 Presidential Elections in Florida; 2.2.2 Excerpt from: Predicting the Bus/Gore Election from the Press: The Cost to George W. Bush of His November Surprise of an Old Arrest2.3 DATA QUALITY; 2.3.1 Applying AAPOR's Final Disposition Codes and Outcome Rates to the 2000 Utah Colleges' Exit Poll; 2.3.2 Party Identification Weighting: Experiments to Improve Survey Quality; 2.4 SUMMARY OBSERVATIONS; 3 2004: Fraudulent Election?; 3.1 INTRODUCTION; 3.2 THE GREAT ELECTION DEBATE; 3.2.1 Excerpt from: Evaluation of Ediso/Mitofsky Election System 2004; 3.2.2 The Argument for Fraud; 3.2.3 Excerpt from: Beyond Exit Poll Fundamentalism: Surveying the 2004 Election Debate3.3 CONFIDENTIALITY-ANOTHER SIDE OF THE CONTROVERSY; 3.3.1 Excerpt from: Explaining Discrepancies between Official Votes and Exit Polls in the 2004 Presidential Election; 3.4 FURTHER RESEARCH; 3.4.1 Ohio Election Analysis; 3.5 SUMMARY OBSERVATIONS; 4 Mid-Term Elections: 2006; 4.1 INTRODUCTION; 4.2 PRE-ELECTION POLLS; 4.2.1 Poll and Races: The Impact of Methods and Conditions on the Accuracy of 2006 Pre-Election Polls; 4.2.2 Excerpt from: A New Age Solution for an Age-old Problem: Mining Data for Likely Voters4.2.3 Excerpt from: Forecasting House Seats from Generic Congressional Polls; 4.3 REFERENDA ON THE BALLOT; 4.3.1 The Role of Direct Democracy in California Governance: Public Opinion on Making Policy at the Ballot Box; 4.4 SUMMARY OBSERVATIONS; 5 Globe-trotting Consultant; 5.1 INTRODUCTION; 5.2 A HISTORICAL LOOK AT EXIT POLLS FROM A MEXICAN PERSPECTIVE; 5.2.1 Excerpt from: Exit Polls as Valuable Tools to Understand Voting Behavior: Using an Advanced Design in Mexico-History; 5.3 MUSLIM OPINIONS ON POLITICAL REFORM5.3.1 Excerpt From: Muslims and Democracy: Stability and Change in Public Opinions; 5.4 A MEXICAN CASE STUDY; 5.4.1 Excerpt from: Nonresponse in Exit Poll Methodology: A Case Study in Mexico-Mixed Modes; 5.4.2 Excerpt from: Nonresponse in Exit Poll Methodology: A Case Study in Mexico-Nonignorable Response; 5.4.3 Excerpt from: Exit Polls as Valuable Tools to Understand Voting Behavior: Using an Advanced Design in Mexico-Measurement Error; 5.5 PRE-ELECTION POLLING IN NAGANO, JAPAN; 5.5.1 Differently Administered Questionnaires: Findings from Surveys of Asahi Shimbun for the 2006 Nagano Gubernatorial Election
• Sommario/riassunto: ""An understanding of the relationship between the product and the process in election polling is often lost. This edited volume unites ideas and researchers, with quality playing the central role.""--J. Michael Brick, PhD, Director of the Survey Methods Unit, Westat, Inc.Elections and Exit Polling is a truly unique examination of the specialized surveys that are currently used to track and collect data on elections and voter preferences. Employing modern research from the past decade and a series of interviews with famed American pollster Warren Mitofsky (1934-2006), this volume p