Risk-Based Project Decisions in Situations of High Complexity and Deep Uncertainty / / by Yuri G. Raydugin

• Record Nr.: UNINA9910865280803321
• Autore: Raydugin Yuri <1960->
• Pubbl/distr/stampa: Cham : , : Springer Nature Switzerland : , : Imprint : Springer, , 2024
• ISBN: 9783031569883; 9783031569876
• Edizione: [1st ed. 2024.]
• Descrizione fisica: 1 online resource (399 pages)
• Disciplina: 658.404
• Soggetti: Operations research; Technological innovations; Financial risk management; Operations Research and Decision Theory; Innovation and Technology Management; Risk Management
• Lingua di pubblicazione: Inglese
• Formato: Materiale a stampa
• Livello bibliografico: Monografia
• Nota di bibliografia: Includes bibliographical references and index.
• Nota di contenuto: Introduction -- PRM and types of project uncertainties -- Overview of DMDU methodologies -- Project complexity concept -- Decision-making framework -- Selection of project options in situations of deep uncertainty -- Development of project schedule and cost contingencies in complex projects -- Cost escalation and exchange-rate volatility risk assessment methods -- High-level overview of simplistic Monte Carlo and parametric risk assessment methods -- Case study 1: applications of a tradition PRM (scoring method) -- Case study 2: applications of “linear Monte Carlo” methodology -- Case study 3: applications of “non-linear Monte Carlo” methodology -- Case study 4: selection of project options (a few “futures”) -- Case study 5: selection of project options (multiple “futures”) -- Case study 6: applications of cost escalation and exchange-rate volatility modelling methods -- Conclusion.
• Sommario/riassunto: This book integrates for readers three areas of knowledge, pertaining to risk-based project decision making: project risk management (PRM), complexity theory, and decision-making under deep uncertainty ; (DMDU). Readers will appreciate that in practice, too often relevant complexity and uncertainty factors are either ignored or overlooked resulting in epic project failures. The author discusses a variety of methodologies and a decision-tree-type framework to determine why, when and how particular methodologies should be applied to ensure project success. These include nonlinear Monte Carlo techniques, a dynamic adaptive methodology to adapt to external environment changes, game theory for devising robust decision-making criteria, systems dynamics and cost escalation modelling, as well as risk-based & economic-based alternatives selection methodologies. This book will be an eye-opener for many PRM practitioners, helping to increase their chances of project success by properly handlinginescapable project-complexity and deep-uncertainty implications in specific contexts. Integrates project risk management (PRM), complexity theory, and decision-making under deep uncertainty (DMDU); Provides conceptual overview of PRM, project complexity and DMDU methodologies, their interdependencies and integration; Enables robust, risk-based decision-making for contingency development and alternatives selection, rooted in game theory.