Global financial crisis : explaining cross-country differences in the output impact / / Pelin Berkmen ... [et al.]

• Record Nr.: UNINA9910828513903321
• Autore: Berkmen Pelin
• Pubbl/distr/stampa: [Washington, D.C.], : International Monetary Fund, 2009
• ISBN: 1-4623-7795-5; 9786612844676; 1-282-84467-9; 1-4527-7326-2; 1-4518-7425-1
• Edizione: [1st ed.]
• Descrizione fisica: 19 p. : ill
• Collana: IMF working paper ; ; WP/09/280
• Disciplina: 332.1
• Soggetti: Financial crises; Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009
• Lingua di pubblicazione: Inglese
• Formato: Materiale a stampa
• Livello bibliografico: Monografia
• Note generali: Bibliographic Level Mode of Issuance: Monograph
• Nota di bibliografia: Includes bibliographical references.
• Nota di contenuto: Intro -- Contents -- I. Introduction -- II. Data -- III. Descriptive Evidence -- IV. Regression results -- A. Baseline Regressions for Emerging Markets -- B. Did Trade Linkages Play a Role? -- C. Robustness Tests -- V. Conclusion -- References -- Tables -- 1. Baseline Regression Results -- 2. Regression Results: All Developing Countries -- 3. Robustness Tests: Changing Dates -- 4. Robustness Tests: WEO Forecasts -- Appendix Tables -- A.1. List of Explanatory Variables -- A.2. Countries Cosidered for Forecast.
• Sommario/riassunto: We provide one of the first attempts at explaining the differences in the crisis impact across developing countries and emerging markets. Using cross-country regressions to explain the factors driving growth forecast revisions after the eruption of the global crisis, we find that a small set of variables explain a large share of the variation in growth revisions. Countries with more leveraged domestic financial systems and more rapid credit growth tended to suffer larger downward revisions to their growth outlooks. For emerging markets, this financial channel trumps the trade channel. For a broader set of developing countries, however, the trade channel seems to have mattered, with ; countries exporting more advanced manufacturing goods more affected than those exporting food. Exchange-rate flexibility clearly helped in buffering the impact of the shock. There is also some -weaker-evidence that countries with a stronger fiscal position prior to the crisis were hit less severely. We find little evidence for the importance of other policy variables.