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Record Nr. |
UNINA9910827082503321 |
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Autore |
Dridi Jemma |
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Titolo |
The Impact of Oil-Related Income on the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in Syria / / Jemma Dridi, Maher Hasan |
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Pubbl/distr/stampa |
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Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2008 |
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ISBN |
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1-4623-2249-2 |
1-4527-6421-2 |
9786612841477 |
1-282-84147-5 |
1-4518-7054-X |
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Edizione |
[1st ed.] |
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Descrizione fisica |
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1 online resource (32 p.) |
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Collana |
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IMF Working Papers |
IMF working paper ; ; WP/08/196 |
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Altri autori (Persone) |
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Disciplina |
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Soggetti |
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Petroleum industry and trade - Syria - Econometric models |
National income - Syria - Econometric models |
Foreign exchange rates - Syria - Econometric models |
Investments: Energy |
Foreign Exchange |
Macroeconomics |
Energy: General |
Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions |
Currency |
Foreign exchange |
Investment & securities |
Exchange rates |
Oil |
Real exchange rates |
Real effective exchange rates |
Personal income |
Petroleum industry and trade |
Income |
Syrian Arab Republic |
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Lingua di pubblicazione |
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Formato |
Materiale a stampa |
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Livello bibliografico |
Monografia |
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Note generali |
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Description based upon print version of record. |
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Nota di bibliografia |
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Includes bibliographical references. |
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Nota di contenuto |
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Contents; I. Introduction; II. Brief Review of the Literature; III. Exchange System in Syria; A. Exchange System Developments; Figures; 1. Developments of the Official and Free Market Exchange Rates, 1951-2005; B. Which Exchange Rate Should be Used to Measure the Real Effective Exchange Rate?; C. Developments of the Free Market and Weighted Rates; IV. The Role of Oil-Related Income; A. The Concept of Oil-Related Income; 2. Nominal and Real Effective Exchange Rates, 1960-2005; B. The Impact of Oil-Related Income on the Balance of Payments and the Budget; Boxes; 1. Oil-Related Income in Syria |
3. Share of Oil-Related Revenues in Total Foreign Exchange Earnings, and Balance of Payments Developments, 1960-2005V. Theoretical Determinants of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate and Estimation Results; A. Theoretical Determinants of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate; 4. Share of the Oil-Related Revenues in Total Foreign Exchange Earnings and Fiscal Developments, 1960-2005; B. Estimation Results and Data Issues; 5. Real Effective Exchange Rate and its Theoretical Determinants, 1960-2005; Tables; 1. Unit Root Tests; 2. Multivariate Cointegration Test Results |
3. Long-Term Coefficient From Vector Error Correction Model Estimates Using the Free Market Rate6. Government Expenditure and Imports, 1961-2005; 7. REERF, Smoothed and Unsmoothed ERER, and Misalignment, 1960-2005; VI. Conclusions; 8. External Sustainability Assessment; References; Appendixes; I. Exchange System Developments in Syria; II. Detailed ECM Results |
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Sommario/riassunto |
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This paper examines the impact of oil-related income, among other fundamentals, on the equilibrium real effective exchange rate (ERER) in Syria. After reviewing the evolution of the Syrian multiple exchange rate regime since 1960 and assessing alternative measures for the exchange rate, the paper analyzes the impact of oil-related income on the ERER in the context of a behavioral equilibrium exchange rate model. The analysis concludes that ERER appreciates with higher oil-related income, productivity and net foreign assets, but, at odds with the conventional wisdom, depreciates with higher government expenditures given that an increase in expenditures usually translates into higher imports and weaker current account position. In light of the projected real shocks associated with the depletion of oil and the change in other fundamentals in the context of the ongoing transition to a market economy, a more flexible regime would serve Syria better in the future. |
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