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Record Nr. |
UNINA9910825975603321 |
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Autore |
Mecagni Mauro |
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Titolo |
The Persistence of Capital Account Crises / / Mauro Mecagni, Ruben Atoyan, David Hofman |
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Pubbl/distr/stampa |
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Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2009 |
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ISBN |
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1-4623-9310-1 |
1-4527-1374-X |
1-4518-7250-X |
1-282-84318-4 |
9786612843181 |
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Edizione |
[1st ed.] |
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Descrizione fisica |
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1 online resource (29 p.) |
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Collana |
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Altri autori (Persone) |
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Disciplina |
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Soggetti |
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Capital movements |
Financial crises |
Balance of payments |
Banks and Banking |
Capital account crisis |
Currency |
Current Account Adjustment |
Debts, External |
Duration Analysis |
Economic & financial crises & disasters |
Exchange rate arrangements |
Exports and Imports |
External debt |
Finance |
Financial Crises |
Financial Risk Management |
Financial services |
Foreign Exchange |
Foreign exchange |
Index Numbers and Aggregation |
Interest rates |
Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects |
International economics |
International Lending and Debt Problems |
Leading indicators |
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Real interest rates |
Short-term Capital Movements |
Turkey |
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Lingua di pubblicazione |
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Formato |
Materiale a stampa |
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Livello bibliografico |
Monografia |
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Note generali |
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Description based upon print version of record. |
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Nota di bibliografia |
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Includes bibliographical references. |
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Nota di contenuto |
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Contents; I. Introduction; II. Conceptual Framework and Methodology; A. Crisis Persistence, Complexity, and Macroeconomic Effects; Figures; 1. Average Duration and Crisis Complexity; Tables; 1. Duration and Nature of Crises; 2. Crisis Complexity, Duration, and Macroeconomic Costs; B. Determinants of the Duration of Crises; 3. Post-Crisis Vulnerabilities; C. Econometric Methodology; III. Persistence of Capital Account Crises; A. Estimation Results and Robustness Tests; 2. Estimation Results for the Capital Account Crises Duration Model; Boxes; 1. Some Further Diagnostic Results |
B. Counterfactual Experiments 3. Descriptive Statistics for the Model Variables; 4. Predicted Probabilities of Staying in Crisis under Different Scenarios; 5. Increase in Predicted Probability of Exit from Crisis under Various Scenarios; 6. Reduction in Predicted Crisis Duration under Various Scenarios; IV. Conclusions; Appendices; 1. Measuring the Duration of Capital Account Crises; 2. A Model for the Duration of Capital Account Crises; References |
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Sommario/riassunto |
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This study contributes to the literature on capital account crises in two ways. First, our analysis of crisis episodes between 1994 and 2002 establishes a clear relationship between the persistence of crises, their complexity, and the intensity of movement of key macroeconomic variables. Second, we provide a systematic examination of the determinants of crisis duration. Our econometric analysis suggests that initial conditions and the external environment plays a key role in determining crisis persistence. The policy response also matters, but cannot offset a record of poor past policies. Overall, the results underscore the critical importance of crisis prevention efforts. |
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