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Record Nr. |
UNINA9910821804203321 |
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Autore |
Callen Tim |
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Titolo |
The Global Impact of Demographic Change / / Tim Callen, Warwick McKibbin, Nicoletta Batini |
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Pubbl/distr/stampa |
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Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2006 |
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ISBN |
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1-4623-6091-2 |
1-4527-5217-6 |
1-283-51819-8 |
1-4519-0805-9 |
9786613830647 |
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Edizione |
[1st ed.] |
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Descrizione fisica |
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1 online resource (36 p.) |
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Collana |
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Altri autori (Persone) |
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McKibbinWarwick |
BatiniNicoletta |
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Soggetti |
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Demography - Econometric models |
Population - Economic aspects - Econometric models |
Aging - Economic aspects - Econometric models |
Saving and investment - Econometric models |
Capital movements - Econometric models |
Demography |
Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts |
International Investment |
Long-term Capital Movements |
Macroeconomics: Consumption |
Saving |
Wealth |
Investment |
Capital |
Intangible Capital |
Capacity |
Economics of the Elderly |
Economics of the Handicapped |
Non-labor Market Discrimination |
Demographic Economics: General |
Health: General |
Population & demography |
Population & migration geography |
Health economics |
Demographic change |
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Aging |
Population and demographics |
Population growth |
Health |
Demographic transition |
Population |
Population aging |
Japan |
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Lingua di pubblicazione |
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Formato |
Materiale a stampa |
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Livello bibliografico |
Monografia |
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Note generali |
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"January 2006." |
"McKibbin's research in this paper was supported by the Economic and Social Research Institute of the Japanese Cabinet Office International Collaborations Project through the Brookings Institution and was prepared as background material for the September 2004 World Economic Outlook."--Title page. |
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Nota di bibliografia |
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Includes bibliographical references (p. 31-34). |
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Nota di contenuto |
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""Contents""; ""I. INTRODUCTION""; ""II. SOME BACKGROUND ON GLOBAL DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE""; ""III. MODELING THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE""; ""IV. HOW WILL DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE AFFECT THE GLOBAL ECONOMY?""; ""V. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS""; ""VI. CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS""; ""Appendix: The Analytical Approach""; ""References"" |
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Sommario/riassunto |
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The world is in the midst of a major demographic transition. This paper examines the implications of such transition over the next 80 years for Japan, the United States, other industrial countries, and the developing regions of the world using a dynamic intertemporal general equilibrium four-country model containing demographics calibrated to the "medium variant" of the United Nations population projections. We find that population aging in industrial countries will reduce aggregate growth in these regions over time, but should boost growth in developing countries over the next 20-30 years, as the relative size of their workingage populations increases. Demographic change will also affect saving, investment, and capital flows, implying changes in global trade balances and asset prices. We also explore the sensitivity of the results to assumptions about future productivity growth and country external risk for the developing country region. |
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