External Shocks and Business Cycle Fluctuations in Mexico : : How Important are U.S. Factors? / / Sebastian Sosa

• Record Nr.: UNINA9910818880803321
• Autore: Sosa Sebastian
• Pubbl/distr/stampa: Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2008
• ISBN: 1-4623-5277-4; 1-4527-7229-0; 1-282-84055-X; 1-4518-6961-4; 9786612840555
• Edizione: [1st ed.]
• Descrizione fisica: 1 online resource (33 p.)
• Collana: IMF Working Papers; IMF working paper ; ; WP/08/100
• Disciplina: 338.542
• Soggetti: Business cycles - Mexico - Econometric models; Exports and Imports; Macroeconomics; Industries: General; Trade: General; Macroeconomics: Production; Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data); Energy: Demand and Supply; Prices; International economics; Economic growth; Industrial production; Exports; Imports; Business cycles; Oil prices; Industries; Mexico Foreign economic relations United States Econometric models; Mexico Economic conditions Econometric models; United States
• Lingua di pubblicazione: Inglese
• Formato: Materiale a stampa
• Livello bibliografico: Monografia
• Note generali: Description based upon print version of record.
• Nota di bibliografia: Includes bibliographical references.
• Nota di contenuto: Contents; I. Introduction; II. The Econometric Model; A. Specification and Identification Strategy; B. Block Structure, Variables, and Data; C. Estimation Issues; III. The Role of U.S. Demand and Other External Shocks in Mexican Output Fluctuations..; Tables; 1. Variance Decomposition of Mexican Real Output: Post-NAFTA Period; 2. Size of the Shocks and Output Response in Mexico: Post-NAFTA; Figures; 1. Response of Real Output to a U.S. Industrial Production Shock; 3. Variance Decomposition of Mexican Real Output: Post-NAFTA Period (Using U.S. GDP as a Proxy for U.S. Demand); 4. Variance Decomposition of Mexican Real Output: Post-NAFTA Period (Using U.S. Imports as a Proxy for U.S. Demand)2. Response of Real Output to a U.S. GDP Shock; 5. Variance Decomposition of Mexican Real Output: Post-NAFTA Period (Using U.S. Real Interest Rate as a Proxy for International Financial Conditions); 3. Response of Real Output to a U.S. Imports Shock; 6. Variance Decomposition of Mexican Real Output: Post-NAFTA Period (Using VIX Volatility Index as a Proxy for International Financial Conditions); 7. Variance Decomposition of Mexican Real Output: Post-NAFTA Period (Using Junk Bond Yields as a Proxy for International Financial Conditions)8. Variance Decomposition of Mexican Real Output: 1980Q1-2007Q2; 9. Size of the Shocks and Output Response in Mexico: 1980Q1-2007Q2; 4. Response of Real Output to a U.S. Demand Shock (Post-NAFTA and 1980-2007); IV. Capturing U.S. Demand Linkages to Mexico: Which U.S. Variables Help Explain Fluctuations in Mexican Economic Activity?; A. Bivariate VARs: Variance Decomposition Analysis; B. Synchronization Between the U.S. and Mexican Economies; 10. Mexican GDP and U.S. Variables: Bivariate VARs11. Mexican Exports and U.S. Variables: Bivariate VARs; 5. Synchronization Between Mexican GDP and U.S. Variables; 12. Cross Correlations of Mexican GDP and U.S. Variables; 13. Cross Correlations of Mexican Exports and U.S. Variables; 6. Synchronization Between Mexican Exports and U.S. Variables; V. U.S. Shocks and Business Cycle Fluctuations in Mexico: Potential Spillovers and Channels of Transmission; 7. Synchronization Between Mexican GDP (Services) and U.S. Variables; A. Explaining Services Sector GDP, with Unrestricted VAR Models; 14. Cross Correlations of Mexican GDP (Services) and U.S. Variables15. Variance Decomposition of Mexico's Real Output in Services; 16. Variance Decomposition of Mexico's Real Output in Services (Using U.S. GDP as a Proxy for U.S. Demand); 8. Response of Real Output in Services to a U.S. Industrial Production Shock; 17. Variance Decomposition of Mexico's Real Output in Services (Using U.S. Imports as a Proxy for U.S. Demand); 9. Response of Real Output in Services to a U.S. GDP Shock; 10. Response of Real Output in Services to a U.S. Imports Shock; B. Channels Other Than External Trade?; VI. Concluding Remarks
• Sommario/riassunto: This paper examines the relative importance of external shocks as sources of business cycle fluctuations in Mexico, and identifies the dynamic responses of domestic output to foreign disturbances. Using a VAR model with block exogeneity restrictions, it finds that U.S. shocks explain a large share of Mexico's macroeconomic fluctuations after NAFTA. This partly reflects greater trade integration-but also Mexico's "Great Moderation," as the country escaped its former pattern of macro-financial crises. In this period, Mexico's output fluctuations have ; been closely synchronized with the U.S. cycle, with a large and rapid impact of U.S. shocks on Mexican growth.