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Record Nr. |
UNINA9910817529203321 |
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Autore |
Cuevas Alfredo |
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Titolo |
Pension Privatization and Country Risk / / Alfredo Cuevas, Maria Gonzalez, Arnoldo López-Marmolejo, Davide Lombardo |
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Pubbl/distr/stampa |
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Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2008 |
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ISBN |
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1-4623-7193-0 |
1-4527-6623-1 |
1-4518-7053-1 |
9786612841460 |
1-282-84146-7 |
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Edizione |
[1st ed.] |
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Descrizione fisica |
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1 online resource (27 p.) |
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Collana |
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IMF Working Papers |
IMF working paper ; ; WP/08/195 |
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Altri autori (Persone) |
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GonzalezMaria |
LombardoDavide |
López-MarmolejoArnoldo |
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Disciplina |
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Soggetti |
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Pensions - Econometric models |
Privatization - Econometric models |
Debts, Public - Econometric models |
Country risk - Econometric models |
Credit ratings |
Debt Management |
Debt |
Debts, Public |
Labor |
Monetary economics |
Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General |
Money and Monetary Policy |
Nonwage Labor Costs and Benefits |
Pension reform |
Pension spending |
Pensions |
Private Pensions |
Public debt |
Public finance & taxation |
Public Finance |
Social Security and Public Pensions |
Sovereign Debt |
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Lingua di pubblicazione |
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Formato |
Materiale a stampa |
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Livello bibliografico |
Monografia |
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Note generali |
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Description based upon print version of record. |
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Nota di bibliografia |
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Includes bibliographical references. |
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Nota di contenuto |
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Contents; I. Introduction; II. Country Risk, Credit Ratings and Implicit Pension Debt (IPD); Figures; 1. Standard and Poor's Creidt Ratings and Government Debt; 2. Risk Premia and International Investor Ratings; III. Econometric Analysis; Tables; 1. Institutional Investor Ratings (IIR), IPD and Debt; 2. IIR and Pension Reform: Static Panel Estimation with Fixed Effects; 3. IIR and Pension Reform: Dynamic Panel (2SLS) Estimation Results; IV. A Counterfactual Study: Mexico's Pension Reform; A. Pension Privation in Mexico; B. Risk Assessment |
3. Mexico: Counterfactual Explicit Debt and Primary Balance4. Estimated Impact of Pension Reform on IIR; 4. Mexico: Counterfactual IIR; V. Conclusion; VI. Annexes; References |
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Sommario/riassunto |
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This paper explores how privatizing a pension system can affect sovereign credit risk. For this purpose, it analyzes the importance that rating agencies give to implicit pension debt (IPD) in their assessments of sovereign creditworthiness. We find that rating agencies generally do not seem to give much weight to IPD, focusing instead on explicit public debt. However, by channeling pension contributions away from the government and creating a deficit of resources to cover the current pension liabilities during the reform's transition period, a pension privatization reform may transform IPD into explicit public debt, adversely affecting a sovereign's perceived creditworthiness, thus increasing its risk premium. In this light, accompanying pension reform with efforts to offset its transition costs through fiscal adjustment would help preserve a country's credit rating. |
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