1.

Record Nr.

UNINA9910817527703321

Autore

Roache Shaun

Titolo

Commodities and the Market Price of Risk / / Shaun Roache

Pubbl/distr/stampa

Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2008

ISBN

1-4623-6790-9

1-4518-7079-5

1-4519-8829-X

1-282-84172-6

9786612841729

Edizione

[1st ed.]

Descrizione fisica

1 online resource (25 p.)

Collana

IMF Working Papers

IMF working paper ; ; WP/08/221

Disciplina

330.015195

Soggetti

Risk - Econometric models

Commodity futures - Econometric models

Capital assets pricing model

Banks and Banking

Investments: Commodities

Investments: General

Investments: Futures

Commodity Markets

Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

Pension Funds

Non-bank Financial Institutions

Financial Instruments

Institutional Investors

Investment

Capital

Intangible Capital

Capacity

Financing Policy

Financial Risk and Risk Management

Capital and Ownership Structure

Value of Firms

Goodwill

Investment & securities

Finance

Macroeconomics

Financial services law & regulation



Commodities

Real interest rates

Futures

Return on investment

Market risk

Commercial products

Interest rates

Derivative securities

Saving and investment

Financial risk management

United States

Lingua di pubblicazione

Inglese

Formato

Materiale a stampa

Livello bibliografico

Monografia

Note generali

Description based upon print version of record.

Nota di bibliografia

Includes bibliographical references.

Nota di contenuto

Contents; I. Introduction; II. Merton's ICAPM Risk-pricing Model; A. Deriving the risk-pricing equation; B. Identifying state variables; III. Brief Review of the Literature; IV. Data; V. Estimating the Quantities and Prices of Risk; A. The macro risk exposure of commodities; B. Market prices for macro risk; VI. Results; A. Real interest rate risk is priced; B. The time-varying cost of interest rate insurance; C. Evidence for a commodity-specific risk premium; D. Model fit; VII. Conclusion; References; Appendix

Sommario/riassunto

Commodities are back following a stellar run of price performance, attracting financial investor attention. What are the fundamental reasons to hold commodities? One reason is the exposure offered to underlying risk factors. In this paper, I assess the macro risk exposure offered by commodity futures and test whether these risks are priced, using Merton's (1973) intertemporal capital asset pricing model for a sample of commodity prices covering the period January 1973 - February 2008. I find that commodity futures offer a hedge against lower interest rates and that investors are willing to accept lower expected returns for this position. Although some commodities are also a hedge against U.S. dollar depreciation, this risk is not priced.