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UNINA9910817158303321 |
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Autore |
Vtyurina Svetlana |
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Titolo |
Inflation in Tajikistan : : Forecasting Analysis and Monetary Policy Challenges / / Svetlana Vtyurina, Fahad Alturki |
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Pubbl/distr/stampa |
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Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2010 |
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ISBN |
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1-4623-5777-6 |
1-4527-2079-7 |
1-282-84526-8 |
1-4519-6217-7 |
9786612845260 |
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Edizione |
[1st ed.] |
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Descrizione fisica |
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Collana |
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Altri autori (Persone) |
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Disciplina |
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Soggetti |
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Inflation (Finance) - Tajikistan |
Monetary policy - Tajikistan |
Currency |
Deflation |
Econometric models |
Econometrics & economic statistics |
Econometrics |
Economic Forecasting |
Economic forecasting |
Exchange rates |
Forecasting and Other Model Applications |
Forecasting |
Foreign Exchange |
Foreign exchange |
Inflation |
Macroeconomics |
Monetary base |
Monetary economics |
Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General |
Money and Monetary Policy |
Money supply |
Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models |
Multiple Variables: General |
Price Level |
Prices |
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Vector error correction models |
Tajikistan, Republic of |
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Lingua di pubblicazione |
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Formato |
Materiale a stampa |
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Livello bibliografico |
Monografia |
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Note generali |
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Bibliographic Level Mode of Issuance: Monograph |
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Nota di bibliografia |
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Includes bibliographical references. |
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Nota di contenuto |
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Intro -- Contents -- I. Introduction -- II. Monetary Policy Transmission Channels in Tajikistan -- III. Empirical Investigation -- IV. Summary and Considerations -- References -- Tables -- 1. Augmented Dickey-Fuller Unit Root Tests -- 2. Johansen Co-Integration Tests -- 3. Model Restriction and Weak Exogeneity Tests -- 4. Main Statistics of Various ARMA Models, 1999-2009 -- Exhibits and Figures -- Exhibit -- 1. Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism in Tajikistan -- Figures -- 1. NBT Refinancing Rate and Bank Lending Rates, 2001-08 -- 2. Money Growth and Inflation, 2001-08 -- 3. Tajikistan: Overall Inflation 2001Q1-2010Q4 -- 4. Tajikistan: Overall Inflation 2001Q4-2010Q4 -- 5. Tajikistan: Overall Inflation, 1999-2009 -- 6. Tajikistan: Inflation Forecast Based on BARMA (2,2) Model, Dec. 2007-June 2009 -- 7. Tajikistan: Inflation Forecast Based on ARMA (2,2) Model, Dec. 2008-Dec. 2010. |
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Sommario/riassunto |
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This paper attempts to explain short- and long-term dynamics of-and forecast-inflation in Tajikistan using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Autoregressive Moving Average Model (ARMA). By analyzing different transmission channels through the VECM, we were able to evaluate their relative dominance, magnitude, and speed of transition to the equilibrium price level, with the view of identifying those policy tools that will enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy. We found that excess supply of broad money is inflationary in both the short and long term. The dynamic analysis also demonstrates that the exchange rate and international inflation have a strong impact on local prices. Available monetary instruments, such as the refinancing rate, have proven to be ineffective. Therefore, the Tajik monetary authority could greatly benefit from enhancing its monetary instruments toolkit, including by developing the interest rate channel, to improve its monetary policy execution and to achieve stable inflationary conditions. |
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