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Record Nr. |
UNINA9910816279603321 |
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Autore |
Chami Saade |
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Titolo |
Yemen : exchange rate policy in the face of dwindling oil exports / / prepared by Saade Chami ... [et. al.] |
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Pubbl/distr/stampa |
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[Washington, D.C.], : International Monetary Fund, 2007 |
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ISBN |
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1-4623-2557-2 |
1-4527-5719-4 |
1-283-51495-8 |
9786613827401 |
1-4519-1022-3 |
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Edizione |
[1st ed.] |
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Descrizione fisica |
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1 online resource (24 p.) |
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Collana |
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IMF working paper ; ; WP/07/5 |
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Disciplina |
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Soggetti |
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Foreign exchange rates - Yemen (Republic) |
Petroleum industry and trade - Yemen (Republic) |
Exports - Yemen (Republic) |
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Lingua di pubblicazione |
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Formato |
Materiale a stampa |
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Livello bibliografico |
Monografia |
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Note generali |
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Nota di bibliografia |
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Includes bibliographical references (p. 21-22). |
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Nota di contenuto |
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Contents; I. Introduction; II. Background and Macroeconomic Outlook; Figures; 1. Exchange Rate and Inflation Developments, January 1998-June 2006; III. Estimating the Equilibrium Exchange Rate; 2. Yemen and GCC Countries, Real Effective Exchange Rates, January 1995-June 2006; IV. Equilibrium Exchange Rate in Yemen; A. Data and variables; 3. Real Effective Exchange Rate and its Key Determinants; B. Methodology; C. Econometric Results; Tables; 1. Selected Results of the VEC; D. Equilibrium (long-run) Relationship; E. Impact of Declining Oil Production on the REER |
F. Impact on the Nominal Exchange Rate: An Illustrative ExerciseV. Exchange Rate Regime Options; 4. Yemeni Rial-Daily Exchange Rate Versus U.S. Dollar, January-August 2006; VI. Conclusions; Appendix; 1. Variables; References |
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Sommario/riassunto |
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This paper investigates the likely implications of declining oil production on Yemen's equilibrium exchange rate, and discusses policy options to ensure a smooth transition to a nonoil economy. The |
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empirical results suggest that, as oil production and foreign exchange earnings fall, the Yemeni rial will have to adjust downward in real effective terms to keep pace with the equilibrium exchange rate. In light of strong pass-through from exchange rate depreciation to domestic inflation, this could entail a substantial depreciation in nominal terms. Given the nature of the adjustment, a floating exchange rate regime appears to be the best option, if supported by appropriate macroeconomic policies. However, given public fixation on a exchange rate stability, a softly managed float would be a better option for Yemen whereby the central bank may have to lead the market toward the equilibrium exchange rate. |
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