Inflation Targeting and Communication : : It Pays Off to Read Inflation Reports / / Katerina Smídková, Viktor Kotlán, David Navrátil, Ales Bulir

• Record Nr.: UNINA9910789100103321
• Autore: Smídková Katerina
• Pubbl/distr/stampa: Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2008
• ISBN: 1-4623-1744-8; 1-4527-3696-0; 1-282-84185-8; 9786612841859; 1-4518-7092-2
• Descrizione fisica: 1 online resource (44 p.)
• Collana: IMF Working Papers; IMF working paper ; ; WP/08/234
• Altri autori (Persone): KotlánViktor; NavrátilDavid; BulirAles
• Disciplina: 332.11
• Soggetti: Inflation (Finance) - Forecasting - Econometric models; Monetary policy - Econometric models; Banks and banking, Central - Econometric models; Banks and Banking; Inflation; Money and Monetary Policy; Public Finance; Forecasting; Price Level; Deflation; Monetary Policy; Forecasting and Other Model Applications; Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects; Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General; Macroeconomics; Monetary economics; Economic Forecasting; Banking; Public finance & taxation; Inflation targeting; Economic forecasting; Central bank policy rate; Communications in revenue administration; Prices; Monetary policy; Interest rates; Revenue; Poland, Republic of
• Lingua di pubblicazione: Inglese
• Formato: Materiale a stampa
• Livello bibliografico: Monografia
• Note generali: Description based upon print version of record.
• Nota di bibliografia: Includes bibliographical references.
• Nota di contenuto: Contents; I. Why Inflation Targeting?; Figures; 1. Inflation and Its Determinants, 2000-05; II. Inflation Targeting and Communication; A. Central Bank Communication and Inflation Forecasts; B. The Public; 2. Inflation Forecasts, Policymaking, and Communication Under Conditional; III. Methodology and Sample Selection; 3. The Public's Scrutiny of Central Bank Communication; A. Methodology; B. Sample Selection and Data; IV. Empirical Findings; Tables; 1. Inflation Targeters: Sample Characteristics; A. Summary of Results; 2. Breakdown of Communication Results, Sample Average, 2000-05; 3. Clarity of Communication, Sample Averages, 2000-05B. "The Central Bank that Cried Wolf"; 4. Clarity of Communication, Individual Countries, 2000-05; 4. Monetary Policy Communication: 2000-05; C. Robustness Checks; 5. Clarity of Communication: Robustness Checks; V. Conclusions: Is the Glass Half Empty or Half Full?; 5. Clarity of Communication, the 2-Year Forecast Horizon, 2000-05; References; Annex
• Sommario/riassunto: Inflation-targeting central banks have a respectable track record at explaining their policy actions and corresponding inflation outturns. Using a simple forward-looking policy rule and an assessment of inflation reports, we provide a new methodology for the empirical evaluation of consistency in central bank communication. We find that the three communication tools-inflation targets, inflation forecasts, and verbal assessments of inflation factors contained in quarterly inflation reports-provided a consistent message in five out of six observations in our 2000-05 sample of Chile, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Thailand, and Sweden.