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1. |
Record Nr. |
UNINA9910788715403321 |
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Titolo |
Inflation Targeting Under Imperfect Policy Credibility |
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Pubbl/distr/stampa |
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Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2009 |
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ISBN |
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1-4623-2348-0 |
1-4527-7227-4 |
1-282-84314-1 |
9786612843143 |
1-4518-7241-0 |
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Descrizione fisica |
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1 online resource (32 p.) |
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Collana |
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Soggetti |
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Inflation (Finance) |
Fiscal policy |
Inflation |
Money and Monetary Policy |
Economic Theory |
Production and Operations Management |
Price Level |
Deflation |
Monetary Policy |
Macroeconomics: Production |
Agriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis |
Prices |
Macroeconomics |
Monetary economics |
Economic theory & philosophy |
Inflation targeting |
Output gap |
Supply shocks |
Disinflation |
Monetary policy |
Production |
Economic theory |
Supply and demand |
United States |
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Lingua di pubblicazione |
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Formato |
Materiale a stampa |
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Livello bibliografico |
Monografia |
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Note generali |
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Description based upon print version of record. |
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Nota di bibliografia |
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Includes bibliographical references. |
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Nota di contenuto |
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Contents; I. Introduction; II. The Model; A. Inflation Process with Endogenous Credibility; A.1 Inflation equation-an expectations-augmented Phillips curve; A.2 Output Gap equation; A.3 Exchange rate-real interest rate parity equation; A.4 Monetary policy loss function; A.5 Note on calibration; III. Optimal Disinflation; A. Initial Condition; B. Disinflation Under Various Degrees of Credibility; IV. Optimal Responses to Shocks; A. Initial Conditions; B. Supply Shocks; C. Demand Shocks; V. Costs of Delaying Interest Rate Increase Under Imperfect Credibility; VI. Concluding Remarks; References |
Figures1. Disinflation with Equal Weights on Inflation, Output and Interest Rate Variability; 2. Disinflation with Lower Weights on Output and Interest Rate Variability; 3. Responses to Unfavorable and Favorable Supply Shocks (Positive Shock Circle; Negative Shock Triangle); 4. Responses to Positive and Negative Demand Shocks (Positive Shock Circle Negative Shock Triangle; 5. Cost of Delaying Interest Rate Hikes in Response to an Unfavorable Supply Shock in an Economy with High Inflation and Low Initial Credibility (No Delay Triangle; Delay Circle) |
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Sommario/riassunto |
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This paper presents a model for Inflation Targeting under imperfect policy credibility. It modifies the conventional model in three ways: an endogenous policy credibility process, by which monetary policy can gain or lose credibility over time; non-linearities in the inflation equation and in the credibility generating process; and an explicit loss function. The model highlights problems associated with the practice of setting a series of rigid near-term inflation targets. Also, unfavorable supply shocks pose a difficult problem: an appropriate response involves an interest rate increase, some loss of output, and a period of increased inflation. A delayed response can result in a prolonged period of stagflation. |
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2. |
Record Nr. |
UNINA9910817662103321 |
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Autore |
Grabo Cynthia M. |
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Titolo |
Handbook of warning intelligence : complete declassified edition / / Cynthia Grabo, with Jan Goldman |
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Pubbl/distr/stampa |
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Lanham [Maryland] : , : Rowman & Littlefield, , [2015] |
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©2015 |
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ISBN |
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Descrizione fisica |
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1 online resource (455 p.) |
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Collana |
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Security and professional intelligence education series (SPIES) ; ; 21 |
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Disciplina |
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Soggetti |
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Intelligence service - Methodology |
Intelligence service - United States - Methodology |
Intelligence service - United States - History - 20th century |
Cold War |
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Lingua di pubblicazione |
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Formato |
Materiale a stampa |
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Livello bibliografico |
Monografia |
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Note generali |
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Previous edition published: Lanham, Maryland : Scarecrow Press, 2010, under title Handbook of warning intelligence, as part of the Scarecrow professional intelligence education series, number 12. |
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Nota di contenuto |
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Foreword to the new edition -- Foreword to the previous edition -- Author's note to the original edition -- Part 1. Why warning intelligence and what is it? Some fundamentals -- Part 2. Organization and tools of the trade -- Part 3. Introduction to the analytical method -- Part 4. Specific problems of military analysis -- Part 5. Specific problems of political, civil and economic analysis -- Part 6. Some major analytical problems -- Part 7. Problems of particular types of warfare -- Part 8. Reaching and reporting the warning judgment -- Part 9. Conclusions. |
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Sommario/riassunto |
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The Handbook was written during the cold war and was classified for 40 years. Originally written as a manual for training intelligence analysts, it explains the fundamentals of intelligence analysis and forecasting, discusses military analysis, as well as the difficulties in understanding political, civil, and economic analysis and assessing what it means for analysts to have ""warning judgment."" This new edition includes the final ten chapters recently released by the government. This is the manuscript as it was originally intended to be published by the author in 1972. |
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