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Record Nr. |
UNINA9910788404003321 |
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Autore |
Ehrmann Michael |
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Titolo |
Forecasting ECB Monetary Policy : : Accuracy is (Still) a Matter of Geography / / Michael Ehrmann, Marcel Fratzscher, Helge Berger |
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Pubbl/distr/stampa |
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Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2006 |
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ISBN |
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1-4623-3064-9 |
1-4527-0172-5 |
1-283-51757-4 |
9786613830029 |
1-4519-0837-7 |
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Descrizione fisica |
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1 online resource (42 p.) |
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Collana |
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Altri autori (Persone) |
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FratzscherMarcel |
BergerHelge |
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Soggetti |
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Monetary policy - European Union countries |
Banks and Banking |
Inflation |
Industries: General |
Labor |
Monetary Policy |
Central Banks and Their Policies |
Information and Market Efficiency |
Event Studies |
Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects |
Price Level |
Deflation |
Banks |
Depository Institutions |
Micro Finance Institutions |
Mortgages |
Macroeconomics: Production |
Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search |
Banking |
Macroeconomics |
Labour |
income economics |
Central bank policy rate |
Central bank autonomy |
Industrial production |
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Financial services |
Central banks |
Prices |
Production |
Unemployment |
Interest rates |
Banks and banking |
Industries |
European Union countries Economic policy |
United Kingdom |
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Lingua di pubblicazione |
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Formato |
Materiale a stampa |
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Livello bibliografico |
Monografia |
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Note generali |
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Nota di bibliografia |
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Includes bibliographical references. |
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Nota di contenuto |
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""Contents""; ""I. INTRODUCTION""; ""II. DATA AND SOME STYLIZED FACTS""; ""III. THE ROLE OF GEOGRAPHY, MACRO CONDITIONS, AND HISTORY""; ""IV. DECOMPOSITION OF THE FORECASTING ERRORS""; ""V. CONCLUSIONS""; ""References"" |
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Sommario/riassunto |
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Monetary policy in the euro area is conducted within a multicountry, multicultural, and multilingual context involving multiple central banking traditions. How does this heterogeneity affect the ability of economic agents to understand and to anticipate monetary policy by the European Central Bank (ECB)? Using a database of surveys of professional ECB policy forecasters in 24 countries, we find remarkable differences in forecast accuracy, and show that they are partly related to geography and clustering around informational hubs, as well as to country-specific economic conditions and traditions of independent central banking in the past. In large part, this heterogeneity can be traced to differences in forecasting models. While some systematic differences between analysts have been transitional and are indicative of learning, others are more persistent. |
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