1.

Record Nr.

UNINA9910788335303321

Autore

Souto Marcos

Titolo

Estimating Default Frequencies and Macrofinancial Linkages in the Mexican Banking Sector / / Marcos Souto, Rodolphe Blavy

Pubbl/distr/stampa

Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2009

ISBN

1-4623-6485-3

1-4527-5007-6

9786612843242

1-282-84324-9

1-4518-7256-9

Descrizione fisica

1 online resource (34 p.)

Collana

IMF Working Papers

Altri autori (Persone)

BlavyRodolphe

Soggetti

Default (Finance)

Financial risk management

Accounting

Banks and Banking

Finance: General

Industries: Financial Services

Banks

Depository Institutions

Micro Finance Institutions

Mortgages

Financing Policy

Financial Risk and Risk Management

Capital and Ownership Structure

Value of Firms

Goodwill

General Financial Markets: Government Policy and Regulation

Public Administration

Public Sector Accounting and Audits

Banking

Financial services law & regulation

Finance

Financial reporting, financial statements

Credit risk

Commercial banks

Bank soundness

Financial statements



Financial regulation and supervision

Financial institutions

Financial sector policy and analysis

Nonperforming loans

Public financial management (PFM)

Banks and banking

Finance, Public

Loans

United States

Lingua di pubblicazione

Inglese

Formato

Materiale a stampa

Livello bibliografico

Monografia

Note generali

Description based upon print version of record.

Nota di bibliografia

Includes bibliographical references.

Nota di contenuto

Contents; I. Introduction; II. The Merton Framework Using Book Value Data; Figures; 1. Distribution of Asset Value; III. Background: A Few Stylized Facts About the Mexican Banking System; IV. Estimating Credit Risk Indicators for the Mexican Banking Sector; A. Data and Methodological Assumptions; B. Credit Risk Indicators; C. Book-Value Credit Risk Indicators and Other Measures of Banking Risk; 2. Correlation Between EDF and NPL; Tables; 1. Granger Tests for the Aggregated Banking System; 3a. Distribution of EDF (LCU); 3b. Distribution of NPL (in % of TA); V. Assessing Macrofinancial Linkages

2. Stepwise Regression for the Aggregated Banking SystemPanel A: Using estimated EDF as the dependent variable and NPL as one of the possible covariates.; Panel B: When NPL is not one of the possible covariates; 3. Determinants of Individual Banks' EDFs: Results of Stepwise Regressions; VI. Summary and Conclusion; 4. Panel Regression Results; 4. Banking Risk Indicators, December 1998-June 2008; 5. Large Banks: Banking Risk Indicators, December 1998-June 2008; 6. Small- and Medium-Size Banks: Banking Risk Indicators, December 2002-June 2008

7. Small Subsidies of Foreign Banks: Banking Risk Indicators, December 1998-June 20088. BACC: Banking Risk Indicators, December 1998-June 2008; 9. Bank 1: Banking Risk Indicators, December 1998-June 2008; 10. Bank 2: Banking Risk Indicators, December 1998-June 2008; 11. Bank 3: Banking Risk Indicators, December 1998-June 2008; 12. Bank 4: Banking Risk Indicators, December 1998-June 2008; 13. Bank 5: Banking Risk Indicators, December 1998-June 2008; References; Appendix

Sommario/riassunto

The credit risk measures we develop in this paper are used to investigate macrofinancial linkages in the Mexican banking system. Domestic and external macro-financial variables are found to be closely associated with banking soundness. At the aggregate level, high external volatility and domestic interest rates are associated with higher expected default probability. Though results vary substantially across individual banks, domestic activity and U.S. growth, and higher asset prices, are generally associated with lower credit risks, while increased volatility worsens credit risks. The expected default probability is also found to be a leading indicator of traditional financial stability indicators.