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Record Nr. |
UNINA9910788239503321 |
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Autore |
Sosa Sebastian |
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Titolo |
External Shocks and Business Cycle Fluctuations in Mexico : : How Important are U.S. Factors? / / Sebastian Sosa |
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Pubbl/distr/stampa |
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Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2008 |
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ISBN |
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1-4623-5277-4 |
1-4527-7229-0 |
1-282-84055-X |
1-4518-6961-4 |
9786612840555 |
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Descrizione fisica |
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1 online resource (33 p.) |
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Collana |
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IMF Working Papers |
IMF working paper ; ; WP/08/100 |
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Disciplina |
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Soggetti |
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Business cycles - Mexico - Econometric models |
Exports and Imports |
Macroeconomics |
Industries: General |
Trade: General |
Macroeconomics: Production |
Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) |
Energy: Demand and Supply |
Prices |
International economics |
Economic growth |
Industrial production |
Exports |
Imports |
Business cycles |
Oil prices |
Industries |
Mexico Foreign economic relations United States Econometric models |
Mexico Economic conditions Econometric models |
United States |
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Lingua di pubblicazione |
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Formato |
Materiale a stampa |
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Livello bibliografico |
Monografia |
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Note generali |
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Description based upon print version of record. |
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Nota di bibliografia |
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Includes bibliographical references. |
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Nota di contenuto |
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Contents; I. Introduction; II. The Econometric Model; A. Specification and Identification Strategy; B. Block Structure, Variables, and Data; C. Estimation Issues; III. The Role of U.S. Demand and Other External Shocks in Mexican Output Fluctuations..; Tables; 1. Variance Decomposition of Mexican Real Output: Post-NAFTA Period; 2. Size of the Shocks and Output Response in Mexico: Post-NAFTA; Figures; 1. Response of Real Output to a U.S. Industrial Production Shock; 3. Variance Decomposition of Mexican Real Output: Post-NAFTA Period (Using U.S. GDP as a Proxy for U.S. Demand) |
4. Variance Decomposition of Mexican Real Output: Post-NAFTA Period (Using U.S. Imports as a Proxy for U.S. Demand)2. Response of Real Output to a U.S. GDP Shock; 5. Variance Decomposition of Mexican Real Output: Post-NAFTA Period (Using U.S. Real Interest Rate as a Proxy for International Financial Conditions); 3. Response of Real Output to a U.S. Imports Shock; 6. Variance Decomposition of Mexican Real Output: Post-NAFTA Period (Using VIX Volatility Index as a Proxy for International Financial Conditions) |
7. Variance Decomposition of Mexican Real Output: Post-NAFTA Period (Using Junk Bond Yields as a Proxy for International Financial Conditions)8. Variance Decomposition of Mexican Real Output: 1980Q1-2007Q2; 9. Size of the Shocks and Output Response in Mexico: 1980Q1-2007Q2; 4. Response of Real Output to a U.S. Demand Shock (Post-NAFTA and 1980-2007); IV. Capturing U.S. Demand Linkages to Mexico: Which U.S. Variables Help Explain Fluctuations in Mexican Economic Activity?; A. Bivariate VARs: Variance Decomposition Analysis; B. Synchronization Between the U.S. and Mexican Economies |
10. Mexican GDP and U.S. Variables: Bivariate VARs11. Mexican Exports and U.S. Variables: Bivariate VARs; 5. Synchronization Between Mexican GDP and U.S. Variables; 12. Cross Correlations of Mexican GDP and U.S. Variables; 13. Cross Correlations of Mexican Exports and U.S. Variables; 6. Synchronization Between Mexican Exports and U.S. Variables; V. U.S. Shocks and Business Cycle Fluctuations in Mexico: Potential Spillovers and Channels of Transmission; 7. Synchronization Between Mexican GDP (Services) and U.S. Variables; A. Explaining Services Sector GDP, with Unrestricted VAR Models |
14. Cross Correlations of Mexican GDP (Services) and U.S. Variables15. Variance Decomposition of Mexico's Real Output in Services; 16. Variance Decomposition of Mexico's Real Output in Services (Using U.S. GDP as a Proxy for U.S. Demand); 8. Response of Real Output in Services to a U.S. Industrial Production Shock; 17. Variance Decomposition of Mexico's Real Output in Services (Using U.S. Imports as a Proxy for U.S. Demand); 9. Response of Real Output in Services to a U.S. GDP Shock; 10. Response of Real Output in Services to a U.S. Imports Shock; B. Channels Other Than External Trade? |
VI. Concluding Remarks |
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Sommario/riassunto |
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This paper examines the relative importance of external shocks as sources of business cycle fluctuations in Mexico, and identifies the dynamic responses of domestic output to foreign disturbances. Using a VAR model with block exogeneity restrictions, it finds that U.S. shocks explain a large share of Mexico's macroeconomic fluctuations after NAFTA. This partly reflects greater trade integration-but also Mexico's "Great Moderation," as the country escaped its former pattern of macro-financial crises. In this period, Mexico's output fluctuations have |
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been closely synchronized with the U.S. cycle, with a large and rapid impact of U.S. shocks on Mexican growth. |
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