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Record Nr. |
UNINA9910788236703321 |
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Autore |
Aiyar Shekhar |
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Titolo |
Much Ado About Nothing? Estimating the Impact of a U.S. Slowdown on Thai Growth / / Shekhar Aiyar, Ivan Tchakarov |
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Pubbl/distr/stampa |
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Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2008 |
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ISBN |
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1-4623-8405-6 |
1-4527-4202-2 |
1-282-84091-6 |
1-4518-6998-3 |
9786612840913 |
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Descrizione fisica |
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1 online resource (20 p.) |
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Collana |
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IMF Working Papers |
IMF working paper ; ; WP/08/140 |
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Altri autori (Persone) |
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Disciplina |
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Soggetti |
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Exports - Thailand - Econometric models |
Economic development - Thailand - Econometric models |
Banks and Banking |
Foreign Exchange |
Inflation |
Production and Operations Management |
Macroeconomics: Production |
Price Level |
Deflation |
Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects |
Macroeconomics |
Currency |
Foreign exchange |
Finance |
Output gap |
Exchange rates |
Real exchange rates |
Real interest rates |
Production |
Economic theory |
Prices |
Interest rates |
Thailand Foreign economic relations United States Econometric models |
United States |
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Lingua di pubblicazione |
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Formato |
Materiale a stampa |
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Livello bibliografico |
Monografia |
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Note generali |
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Description based upon print version of record. |
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Nota di bibliografia |
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Includes bibliographical references. |
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Nota di contenuto |
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Contents; I. Introduction; II. The Model; III. Results; IV. Confidence Intervals; V. Conclusion; Figures; 1. Data Used for Estimation; 2. Responses to a 1 Percent Slowdown in U.S. Growth; 3. Robustness--Confidence Intervals of GDP Growth Responses; Table; 1. Model Parameter Estimation Results; References |
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Sommario/riassunto |
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External demand was the main driver of growth in Thailand in 2006 and 2007. However, WEO projections indicate moderating foreign demand in 2008, with U.S. growth being revised downwards to reflect the turmoil in housing and credit markets, and high oil prices. While the share of Thai exports to the US has fallen in recent years, the US remains Thailand's largest export destination. We use a small structural model and Bayesian estimation to assess the possible impact of a U.S. slowdown on Thai growth. We find that a 1 percent slowdown in U.S. growth in 2008-relative to the baseline forecast-could have an upper-bound impact on Thai GDP growth of 0.9 percentage points. |
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