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Record Nr. |
UNINA9910788231003321 |
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Autore |
Thomas Alun |
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Titolo |
Equilibrium Non-Oil Current Account Assessments for Oil Producing Countries / / Alun Thomas, Jun Kim, Aqib Aslam |
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Pubbl/distr/stampa |
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Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2008 |
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ISBN |
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1-4623-9817-0 |
1-4527-3798-3 |
1-4518-7056-6 |
9786612841491 |
1-282-84149-1 |
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Descrizione fisica |
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1 online resource (26 p.) |
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Collana |
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IMF Working Papers |
IMF working paper ; ; WP/08/198 |
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Altri autori (Persone) |
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Disciplina |
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Soggetti |
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Equilibrium (Economics) - Econometric models |
Balance of payments - Econometric models |
Petroleum industry and trade - Econometric models |
Investments: Energy |
Exports and Imports |
Macroeconomics |
Industries: Energy |
Energy: General |
Current Account Adjustment |
Short-term Capital Movements |
Energy: Demand and Supply |
Prices |
Macroeconomics: Consumption |
Saving |
Wealth |
Macroeconomics: Production |
Investment & securities |
International economics |
Petroleum, oil & gas industries |
Oil |
Current account |
Oil prices |
Consumption |
Oil production |
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Petroleum industry and trade |
Balance of payments |
Economics |
United Arab Emirates |
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Lingua di pubblicazione |
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Formato |
Materiale a stampa |
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Livello bibliografico |
Monografia |
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Note generali |
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Description based upon print version of record. |
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Nota di contenuto |
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Contents; I. Introduction; II. Basic Structure of Alternative Methodology; Existing analysis; III. Model; A. General Model; B. Model Application to Oil Based Economy; IV. Estimation; V. Sensitivity Tests of the Annual Return on Oil Wealth; VI. Equilibrium Non-oil Current Account Assessment; A. Historical Accuracy of the Consumption Smoothing Model; B. Country Estimates of Non-oil Current Account; VII. Conclusions; References |
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Sommario/riassunto |
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This paper introduces a methodology for assessing external balance in countries with large stocks of non-renewable resources based on oil stock data, and applies it to selected oil producing countries. The methodology uses a stock approach (instead of the more traditional flow approach) to estimate the equilibrium non-oil current account consistent with optimal consumption smoothing. One of the benefits of the stock approach is that geological data for oil reserves can be used to estimate oil wealth; however, the methodology makes the estimated non-oil current account norm very sensitive to oil price projections. Based on an oil price about US$70 per barrel prevailing in the summer of 2007, the baseline estimates indicate that the non-oil current accounts for most of the countries in the sample are broadly in equilibrium. By the same token, using oil price projections as of the summer of 2008 implies large disparities between the equilibrium non-oil current account position and the medium term forecast for all countries in the sample except for Malaysia. |
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