Dissecting Saving Dynamics : : Measuring Wealth, Precautionary, and Credit Effects / / Christopher Carroll, Martin Sommer, Jiri Slacalek

• Record Nr.: UNINA9910786485303321
• Autore: Carroll Christopher
• Pubbl/distr/stampa: Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2012
• ISBN: 1-4755-7926-8; 1-4755-1366-6
• Descrizione fisica: 1 online resource (48 p.)
• Collana: IMF Working Papers; IMF working paper ; ; WP/12/219
• Altri autori (Persone): SommerMartin; SlacalekJiri
• Soggetti: Saving and investment; Wealth; Labor; Macroeconomics; Money and Monetary Policy; Macroeconomics: Consumption; Saving; Business Fluctuations; Cycles; Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions; Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General; Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search; Aggregate Factor Income Distribution; Monetary economics; Labour; income economics; Credit; Disposable income; Unemployment; Income; Personal income; Money; National accounts; National income; United States
• Lingua di pubblicazione: Inglese
• Formato: Materiale a stampa
• Livello bibliografico: Monografia
• Note generali: "September 2012."
• Nota di bibliografia: Includes bibliographical references.
• Nota di contenuto: Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; Figures; 1. Personal Saving Rate in 2007-2011 and Previous Recessions; II. Theory: Target Wealth and Credit Conditions; 2. Consumption Function (Stable Arm of Phase Diagram); 3. A Wealth Shock; 4. Relaxation of a Natural Borrowing Constraint from 0 to h; 5. Dynamics of the Saving Rate after an Increase in Unemployment Risk; III. Data and Measurement Issues; 6. Net Worth-Disposable Income Ratio; 7. The Credit Easing Accumulated (CEA) Index; 8. Unemployment Risk E[sub(t)]u[sub(t+4)] and Unemployment Rate (Percent); IV. Reduced-Form Saving Regressions; A. Baseline Estimates 9. The Fit of the Baseline Model and the Time Trend-Actual and Fitted PSR (Percent of Disposable Income); B. Robustness Checks; 10. The Fit of the Baseline Model and the Model with Full Controls (of Table 2)-Actual and Fitted PSR (Percent of Disposable Income); C. Sub-Sample Stability; D. Saving Rate Decompositions; V. Structural Estimation; A. Estimation Procedure; B. Results; 11. Extent of Credit Constraints mt (Fraction of Quarterly Disposable Income); 12. Per Quarter Permanent Unemployment Risk Ω[sub(t)]; 13. Fit of the Structural Model-Actual and Fitted PSR (Percent of Disposable Income)14. Decomposition of Fitted PSR (Percent of Disposable Income); VI. Conclusions; 15. Alternative Measures of Credit Availability; 16. Growth of Real Disposable Income (Percent); 17. Personal Saving Rate (Percent of Disposable Income); Tables; 1. Preliminary Saving Regressions and the Time Trend; 2. Additional Saving Regressions I.-Robustness to Explanatory Variables; 3. Additional Saving Regressions II.-Sub-sample Stability; 4. Personal Saving Rate-Actual and Explained Change, 2007-2010; 5. Calibration and Structural Estimates6. Preliminary Saving Regressions and the Time Trend-Saving Rate Generated by the Structural Model; 7. Univariate Properties of Disposable Income and Personal Saving Rate; 8. Campbell (1987) Saving for a Rainy Day Regressions; References
• Sommario/riassunto: We argue that the U.S. personal saving rate’s long stability (from the 1960s through the early 1980s), subsequent steady decline (1980s - 2007), and recent substantial increase (2008 - 2011) can all be interpreted using a parsimonious ‘buffer stock’ model of optimal consumption in the presence of labor income uncertainty and credit constraints. Saving in the model is affected by the gap between ‘target’ and actual wealth, with the target wealth determined by credit conditions and uncertainty. An estimated structural version of the model suggests that increased credit availability accounts for most of the saving rate’s long-term decline, while fluctuations in net wealth and uncertainty capture the bulk of the business-cycle variation.