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Record Nr. |
UNINA9910783695603321 |
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Autore |
Nickerson Raymond S. |
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Titolo |
Cognition and chance : the psychology of probabilistic reasoning / / Raymond S. Nickerson |
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Pubbl/distr/stampa |
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Mahwah, N.J. : , : Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, , 2004 |
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ISBN |
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1-135-61461-X |
1-135-61462-8 |
1-282-32139-0 |
9786612321399 |
1-4106-1083-7 |
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Descrizione fisica |
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1 online resource (450 p.) |
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Disciplina |
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Soggetti |
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Probabilities |
Risk assessment |
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Lingua di pubblicazione |
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Formato |
Materiale a stampa |
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Livello bibliografico |
Monografia |
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Note generali |
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Description based upon print version of record. |
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Nota di bibliografia |
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Includes bibliographical references and index. |
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Nota di contenuto |
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Contents; Preface; 1. Probability and Chance; 2. Randomness; 3. Coincidences; 4. Inverse Probability and the Reverend Tnomas Bayes; 5. Some Instructive Problems; 6. Some Probability Paradoxes and Dilemmas; 7. Statistics; 8. Estimation and Prediction; 9. Perception of Covariation and Contingency; 10. Choice under Uncertainty; 11. People as Intuitive Probabilists; 12. Concluding Comments; References; Author Index; Subject Index |
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Sommario/riassunto |
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Lack of ability to think probabilistically makes one prone to a variety of irrational fears and vulnerable to scams designed to exploit probabilistic naiveteĢ, impairs decision making under uncertainty, facilitates the misinterpretation of statistical information, and precludes critical evaluation of likelihood claims. Cognition and Chance presents an overview of the information needed to avoid such pitfalls and to assess and respond to probabilistic situations in a rational way. Dr. Nickerson investigates such questions as how good individuals are at thinking probabilistically and how c |
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