1.

Record Nr.

UNINA9910785528503321

Autore

Lund-Jensen Kasper

Titolo

Monitoring Systemic Risk Basedon Dynamic Thresholds / / Kasper Lund-Jensen

Pubbl/distr/stampa

Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2012

ISBN

1-4755-8973-5

1-4755-3725-5

Descrizione fisica

1 online resource (37 p.)

Collana

IMF Working Papers

Soggetti

Financial risk management

Risk management

Banks and Banking

Finance: General

Macroeconomics

Foreign Exchange

General Financial Markets: Government Policy and Regulation

Financial Crises

Banks

Depository Institutions

Micro Finance Institutions

Mortgages

Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook: General

Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook: Other

Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

Finance

Economic & financial crises & disasters

Banking

Currency

Foreign exchange

Systemic risk

Systemic crises

Commercial banks

Systemic risk assessment

Financial sector policy and analysis

Financial crises

Financial institutions

Real effective exchange rates



Banks and banking

United States

Lingua di pubblicazione

Inglese

Formato

Materiale a stampa

Livello bibliografico

Monografia

Note generali

Description based upon print version of record.

Nota di bibliografia

Includes bibliographical references.

Nota di contenuto

Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Related Literature; III. Econometric Methodology and Model Specification; A. Model Specification; Figures; 1. Binary Response Model Structure; Tables; 1. Countries in Data Sample; 2. Systemic Banking Crises, 1970-2010; IV. Estimation Results; 3. Standardized Marginal Effects; 4. Systemic Risk Factors; 2. Systemic Risk Factors based on Dynamic Logit Model, 1970-2010; V. Monitoring Systemic Risk; A. The Signal Extraction Approach; 3. Signal Classification; B. Crisis signals based on binary response model; 5. Optimal Threshold

4. Monitoring Systemic Risk, 1970-2010C. Risk Factor Thresholds; 6. Systemic Risk Estimates and Crisis Signals; 7. Credit-to-GDP Growth Threshold; D. Out-of-Sample Analysis; 5. Monitoring Systemic Risk - Out-of-Sample Analysis: 2001-2010; VI. Concluding Remarks; 8. Systemic Risk Estimates for the United States; Appendices; I. Data Sources and Description; 6. Systemic Risk Factors (1/2), 1970-2010; II. Binary Response Model Estimation Results; 7. Systemic Risk Factors (2/2), 1970-2010; 8. Systemic Risk Factors based on Dynamic Logit Model (Credit-to-GDP Growth), 1970-2010

9. Systemic Banking Crises DatesIII. Systemic Banking Crises Dates; References

Sommario/riassunto

Successful implementation of macroprudential policy is contingent on the ability to identify and estimate systemic risk in real time. In this paper, systemic risk is defined as the conditional probability of a systemic banking crisis and this conditional probability is modeled in a fixed effect binary response model framework. The model structure is dynamic and is designed for monitoring as the systemic risk forecasts only depend on data that are available in real time. Several risk factors are identified and it is hereby shown that the level of systemic risk contains a predictable component which varies through time. Furthermore, it is shown how the systemic risk forecasts map into crisis signals and how policy thresholds are derived in this framework. Finally, in an out-of-sample exercise, it is shown that the systemic risk estimates provided reliable early warning signals ahead of the recent financial crisis for several economies.



2.

Record Nr.

UNINA9910781936303321

Autore

Sachikonye Lloyd

Titolo

When a state turns on its citizens [[electronic resource] ] : 60 years of institutionalised violence in Zimbabwe / / Lloyd Sachikonye

Pubbl/distr/stampa

Zimbabwe, : Weaver Press, 2011

ISBN

1-77922-231-9

1-283-31008-2

1-77922-166-5

9786613310088

1-77922-167-3

1-77922-165-7

Descrizione fisica

1 online resource (146 p.)

Soggetti

Political violence - Zimbabwe

Political persecution - Zimbabwe

Zimbabwe Politics and government 2000-2008

Lingua di pubblicazione

Inglese

Formato

Materiale a stampa

Livello bibliografico

Monografia

Note generali

Description based upon print version of record.

Nota di bibliografia

Includes bibliographical references.

Nota di contenuto

Background, history and patterns of political violence -- Political violence and the scramble for resources -- Systemic violence and the 2008 election -- Violence and political culture -- Wider impact of political violence on society.

Sommario/riassunto

Lloyd Sachikonye traces the roots of Zimbabwe's contemporary violence to the actions of the Rhodesian armed forces, and the inter-party conflicts that occurred during the liberation war. His focus, however, is the period since 2000, which has seen state-sponsored violence erupting in election campaigns and throughout the programme of fast-track land reform. The consequences of this violence run wide and deep. Aside from inflicting trauma and fear on its victims, the impunity enjoyed by its perpetrators has helped to mould a culture within which personal freedoms and dreams are strangled. At a