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Record Nr. |
UNINA9910781475303321 |
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Autore |
Fingar Thomas |
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Titolo |
Reducing uncertainty [[electronic resource] ] : intelligence analysis and national security / / Thomas Fingar |
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Pubbl/distr/stampa |
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Stanford, California, : Stanford Security Studies, 2011 |
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ISBN |
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Descrizione fisica |
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1 online resource (192 p.) |
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Disciplina |
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Soggetti |
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Intelligence service - United States |
National security - United States |
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Lingua di pubblicazione |
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Formato |
Materiale a stampa |
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Livello bibliografico |
Monografia |
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Nota di bibliografia |
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Includes bibliographical references and index. |
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Nota di contenuto |
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Front matter -- Contents -- Acknowledgments -- 1. Reducing uncertainty -- 2. Myths, fears, and expectations -- 3. Spies collect data, analysts provide insight -- 4. Using intelligence to anticipate opportunities and shape the future -- 5. Estimative analysis: what it is, what it isn’t, and how to read it -- 6. A tale of two estimates -- 7. Epilogue: lessons and challenges -- Notes -- Index |
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Sommario/riassunto |
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The US government spends billions of dollars every year to reduce uncertainty: to monitor and forecast everything from the weather to the spread of disease. In other words, we spend a lot of money to anticipate problems, identify opportunities, and avoid mistakes. A substantial portion of what we spend—over |
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