Secular cycles [[electronic resource] /] / Peter Turchin and Sergey A. Nefedov

• Record Nr.: UNINA9910781215303321
• Autore: Turchin Peter <1957->
• Pubbl/distr/stampa: Princeton, N.J., : Princeton University Press, c2009
• ISBN: 1-283-22740-1; 9786613227409; 1-4008-3068-0
• Edizione: [Course Book]
• Descrizione fisica: 1 online resource (360 p.)
• Altri autori (Persone): NefedovS. A (Sergeĭ Aleksandrovich)
• Disciplina: 304.6
• Soggetti: Population - Mathematical models; Demography - Mathematical models; Business cycles - Mathematical models; Economic development - Mathematical models
• Lingua di pubblicazione: Inglese
• Formato: Materiale a stampa
• Livello bibliografico: Monografia
• Note generali: Description based upon print version of record.
• Nota di bibliografia: Includes bibliographical references (p. [317]-339) and index.
• Nota di contenuto: Introduction : the theoretical background -- Medieval England : the Plantagenet cycle (1150-1485) -- Early modern England : the Tudor-Stuart cycle (1485-1730) -- Medieval France : the Capetian cycle (1150-1450) -- Early modern France : the Valois cycle (1450-1660) -- Rome : the Republican cycle (350-30 BCE) -- Rome : the Principate cycle (30 BCE-285 CE) -- Russia : the Muscovy cycle (1460-1620) -- Russia : the Romanov cycle (1620-1922) -- General Conclusions.
• Sommario/riassunto: Many historical processes exhibit recurrent patterns of change. Century-long periods of population expansion come before long periods of stagnation and decline; the dynamics of prices mirror population oscillations; and states go through strong expansionist phases followed by periods of state failure, endemic sociopolitical instability, and territorial loss. Peter Turchin and Sergey Nefedov explore the dynamics and causal connections between such demographic, economic, and political variables in agrarian societies and offer detailed explanations for these long-term oscillations--what the authors call secular cycles. Secular Cycles elaborates and expands upon the demographic-structural theory first advanced by Jack ; Goldstone, which provides an explanation of long-term oscillations. This book tests that theory's specific and quantitative predictions by tracing the dynamics of population numbers, prices and real wages, elite numbers and incomes, state finances, and sociopolitical instability. Turchin and Nefedov study societies in England, France, and Russia during the medieval and early modern periods, and look back at the Roman Republic and Empire. Incorporating theoretical and quantitative history, the authors examine a specific model of historical change and, more generally, investigate the utility of the dynamical systems approach in historical applications. An indispensable and groundbreaking resource for a wide variety of social scientists, Secular Cycles will interest practitioners of economic history, historical sociology, complexity studies, and demography.