Oil and the World Economy : : Some Possible Futures / / Michael Kumhof, Dirk Muir

• Record Nr.: UNINA9910779331103321
• Autore: Kumhof Michael
• Pubbl/distr/stampa: Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2012
• ISBN: 1-4755-4031-0; 1-4755-3997-5; 1-283-86673-0; 1-4755-8835-6
• Descrizione fisica: 1 online resource (32 p.)
• Collana: IMF Working Papers; IMF working paper ; ; WP/12/256
• Altri autori (Persone): MuirDirk
• Soggetti: Petroleum products; Economic geography; Investments: Energy; Macroeconomics; Economic Theory; Industries: Energy; Bayesian Analysis: General; Forecasting and Other Model Applications; Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation: Demand and Supply; Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development; Energy: General; Energy: Demand and Supply; Prices; Price Level; Inflation; Deflation; Agriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Macroeconomics: Production; Investment & securities; Economic theory & philosophy; Petroleum, oil & gas industries; Oil; Oil prices; Price elasticity; Demand elasticity; Oil production; Commodities; Economic theory; Production; Petroleum industry and trade; Elasticity; Economics; United States
• Lingua di pubblicazione: Inglese
• Formato: Materiale a stampa
• Livello bibliografico: Monografia
• Note generali: Description based upon print version of record.
• Nota di bibliografia: Includes bibliographical references.
• Nota di contenuto: Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. The Model; A. Oil Supply; B. Oil Demand; 1. Baseline Scenario; 2. Growing Elasticity Scenario; 3. Entropy Boundary and Falling Elasticity Scenarios; 4. Technology Externality Scenario; C. World Oil Market Equilibrium; D. Calibration; III. Discussion of the Alternative Specifications; A. Entropy Boundary and Falling Elasticity Scenarios; 1. Supply Limitations; 2. Technical Substitutability; B. Growing Elasticity Scenario; C. Technology Externality Scenario; IV. Simulation Results; A. Baseline Scenario; B. Growing Elasticity Scenario; C. Entropy Boundary Scenario and Falling Elasticity ScenarioD. Technology Externality Scenario; E. Larger Shock Scenario; F. Combined Downside Scenarios; G. Combined Downside and Growing Elasticity Scenario; H. The Assumption of Unitary Income Elasticity; I. The Assumption of Smooth Reallocation; V. Conclusion; References; Figures; 1. World Crude Oil Production (in million barrels per day); 2. The Entropy Boundary in Factor Space; 3. Baseline Scenario; 4. Growing Elasticity Scenario; 5. Entropy Boundary Scenario; 6. Falling Elasticity Scenario; 7. Technology Externality and Larger Shock Scenarios8. Combined Downside and Growing Elasticity Scenario
• Sommario/riassunto: This paper, using a six-region DSGE model of the world economy, assesses the GDP and current account implications of permanent oil supply shocks hitting the world economy at an unspecified future date. For modest-sized shocks and conventional production technologies the effects are modest. But for larger shocks, for elasticities of substitution that decline as oil usage is reduced to a minimum, and for production functions in which oil acts as a critical enabler of technologies, GDP growth could drop significantly. Also, oil prices could become so high that smooth adjustment, as assumed in the model, may become very difficult.