Regional Economic Outlook, April 2011, Western Hemisphere : : Watching Out for Overheating

• Record Nr.: UNINA9910779292203321
• Pubbl/distr/stampa: Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2011
• ISBN: 1-4623-4249-3; 1-4552-6436-9; 1-283-53565-3; 9786613848109; 1-4623-8184-7
• Descrizione fisica: 1 online resource (95 p.)
• Collana: Regional Economic Outlook; World economic and financial surveys
• Soggetti: Economic forecasting - Western Hemisphere; Banks and Banking; Foreign Exchange; Inflation; Macroeconomics; Real Estate; Price Level; Deflation; Banks; Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages; Agriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices; Commodity Markets; Currency; Foreign exchange; Banking; Finance; Property & real estate; Exchange rates; Food prices; Banks and banking; Housing; Western Hemisphere Economic conditions 21st century; United States
• Lingua di pubblicazione: Inglese
• Formato: Materiale a stampa
• Livello bibliografico: Monografia
• Note generali: "Apr 11."
• Nota di bibliografia: Includes bibliographical references (p. 76-79).
• Nota di contenuto: Cover; Contents; Preface; Executive Summary; 1. Global, U.S., and Canadian Outlook; 1.1. The Global Outlook-A Dual Speed Expansion Proceeds with Increasing Risks; Advanced Economies; Emerging Market Economies; 1.2. United States-Ongoing Recovery with Downside Risks; Boxes; 1.1. Long-Term Outlook for the U.S. Federal Government Finances; What Kinds of Policies Are Needed?; 1.2. Household Deleveraging in the United States; 1.3. Canada-Recovery Gathers Strength; 1.4. Implications for the Latin American and Caribbean Region; 1.3. Canada's Financial System Resilience: What Can Others Learn?; 2. Outlook and Policy Issues for Latin America and the Caribbean 2.1. Overview; 2.2. Policy Challenges; South America-Managing Double Tailwinds; 2.1. Changing Export Patterns in Latin America and the Caribbean; South America-The Less Financially Integrated Commodity Exporters; 2.2. An Update on Macroprudential Policies; Mexico and Central America-Rebuilding Policy Buffers; The Caribbean-Recovery Beginning Amid High Debt; 2.3. Haiti: Economic Developments since the January 2010 Earthquake; 2.4. Caribbean Offshore Financial Centers: Opportunities and Challenges; 2.3. Dealing with the Oil and Food Price Shock Impact of Global Commodity Price Shocks on Inflation; Monetary Policy in the Face of Commodity Price Shocks; Social Policies and Commodity Price Shocks: Protecting the Poor; 2.5. The Information Value of Core Inflation; 2.4. Credit Markets and Asset Prices-Are Bubbly Conditions Taking Hold?; Bank Credit Growth; Corporate Indebtedness; Equity Prices; Housing Prices; 2.5. Capital Inflows-Guarding Against the Reversal of Favorable Global Conditions; 2.6. Stock Market Developments in the Region: The Role of Commodities; Annex 2.1. Estimating Inflation Pass-Throughs 3. Foreign Exchange Market Intervention: How Good a Defense Against Appreciation Winds?; 3.1. Introduction; 3.2. Key Trends; 3.1. Actual Intervention and Changes in Gross International Reserves; 3.3. Modalities of Intervention; 3.2. Foreign Exchange Intervention Rules in Practice: Selected Latin American Experiences; 3.3. Instruments for Foreign Exchange Purchases; 3.4. Searching for Effects of Intervention: New Evidence; An Econometric Panel Approach; 3.4. Channels of Transmission of Foreign Exchange Intervention to the Exchange Rate; 3.5. Overview of Recent Empirical Studies on Foreign Exchange Intervention in Latin America 3.5. Quasi-Fiscal Costs of FXI; 3.6. Takeaways and Policy Considerations; Annex 3.1. Foreign Exchange Intervention and International Reserves: Data Availability; Annex 3.2. Methodological Strategy for the Panel Approach; Annex 3.3. Confidence Intervals for the Synthetic Currency; Western Hemisphere: Main Economic Indicators; Latin America and the Caribbean: Main Fiscal Indicators; References; New Publications from the Western Hemisphere Department, July 2009-April 2011
• Sommario/riassunto: Despite the recent deterioration in the global economic environment, ; projections for the region involve only a modest worsening of the outlook. The October 2011 Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere cautions, however, that there are severe downside risks. A sharp slowdown in Asia, for example in response to a recession in advanced economies, could impact commodity prices, with negative effects on Latin American commodity exporters. With global monetary policy likely to remain accommodative, capital flows could exacerbate overheating and amplify vulnerabilities in emerging markets. Countries with strong real linkages to the United States face a somewhat weaker outlook and should give priority to reducing public debt. Although much of the Caribbean is recovering from a prolonged recession, the outlook remains constrained by high public debt and weak tourism flows. This issue finds that policies can play an important role in mitigating the economic impact of terms-of-trade shocks, and underscores the need to rebuild policy buffers.