The South African economy : macroeconomic prospects for the medium term / / Finn Tarp and Peter Brixen

• Record Nr.: UNINA9910765831703321
• Autore: Tarp Finn <1951->
• Pubbl/distr/stampa: 2005; Oxfordshire, England ; ; New York : , : Routledge, , 2014; ©1996
• ISBN: 9786610221257; 9781134765416; 113476541X; 9781134765423; 1134765428; 9781280221255; 1280221259; 9780203982051; 0203982053
• Descrizione fisica: 1 online resource (236 p.)
• Collana: Routledge Studies in Development Economics, , 1359-7884
• Classificazione: BUS000000BUS069000
• Disciplina: 330.968/064
• Soggetti: Economic forecasting - South Africa - Econometric models; South Africa Economic conditions 1991- Econometric models; South Africa Economic policy Econometric models
• Lingua di pubblicazione: Inglese
• Formato: Materiale a stampa
• Livello bibliografico: Monografia
• Note generali: Description based upon print version of record.
• Nota di bibliografia: Includes bibliographical references and index.
• Nota di contenuto: Cover; Title Page; Copyright Page; Table of Contents; List of Figures; List of Table and Boxes; Preface; Acknowledgements; Abbreviations; 1. INTRODUCTION; 2. GENERAL COUNTRY BACKGROUND; Macroeconomic features and trend; Socio-economic characteristics; Legacies of apartheid in perspective; Policy frameworks; 3. ACCOUNTING FRAMEWORK AND BASE YEAR DATA; Prices and exchange rates; Material balance; Balance of payments; Money market; Government accounts; Other variables; Disaggregated GDP and export data; Conclusion; 4. MODELLING FRAMEWORKS; The financial programming approach of the IMF; The Revised Minimum Standard Model of the World BankDiscussion; 5. MODEL EXPERIMENTS; Experiment 1: Exchange rate depreciation; Experiment 2: Government external borrowing; Experiment 3: Foreign reserves; Experiment 4: Domestic inflation; Experiment 5: GDP growth; Experiment 6: Export quantity versus export price; Conclusion; 6. BASE RUN; Background; Demand and supply; Prices and exchange rates; Balance of payments; Government accounts; Asset stocks; Conclusion; 7. ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS; Introduction; Alternative assumptions; Results; Summing-up; 8. CONCLUSION; APPENDIX A: Modelling frameworks in GAMSA.1 Introduction; A.2 Financial Programming Framework; A.3 The Revised Minimum Standard Model; APPENDIX Β: BASE RUN; APPENDIX C: OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO; APPENDIX D: PESSIMISTIC SCENARIO; Bibliography; Index
• Sommario/riassunto: What are the macroeconomic prospects for South Africa until the new millennium? Two methods of macroeconomic modelling, associated with the World Bank and IMF, are used here to generate three scenarios, based on moderately optimistic projections. The methodology used can be applied to other developing countries.