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Record Nr. |
UNINA9910746299403321 |
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Autore |
Ndou Eliphas |
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Titolo |
Fiscal Policy Shocks and Macroeconomic Growth in South Africa : Missing Links and Policy Gaps / / Eliphas Ndou and Nombulelo Gumata |
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Pubbl/distr/stampa |
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Cham, Switzerland : , : Springer, , [2023] |
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©2023 |
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ISBN |
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Edizione |
[First edition.] |
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Descrizione fisica |
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1 online resource (271 pages) |
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Disciplina |
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Soggetti |
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Economic development - South Africa |
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Lingua di pubblicazione |
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Formato |
Materiale a stampa |
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Livello bibliografico |
Monografia |
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Nota di bibliografia |
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Includes bibliographical references and index. |
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Nota di contenuto |
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Intro -- Preface -- Acknowledgements -- Contents -- About the Authors -- List of Figures -- List of Tables -- Chapter 1: Introduction -- 1.1 Aims of the Book -- 1.2 Policy and Academic Gaps Filled in the Book -- 1.2.1 Part One: The Effects of Government Debt Dynamics -- 1.2.2 Part Two: The Effects of Fiscal Budget Deficit Dynamics -- 1.2.3 Part Three: The Effects of Interest Rates and Debt Service Costs on Government Debt -- 1.2.4 Part Four: The Macroeconomic Effects of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Government Borrowing Costs, Employment Growth, and role of monetary policy -- 1.3 The Economic Aspects Covered in Our Earlier Research -- 1.3.1 Income Inequality -- 1.3.2 Fiscal Policy, Labour Markets, Income Inequality, Minimum Wage, and Poverty -- 1.3.3 Income Inequality and Employment Issues -- 1.3.4 The Distributive Effects of Fuel Levies, Public Transport Inflation, and Their Impact on Inflation Rates -- 1.3.5 Government Spending and Revenue Shocks -- 1.3.6 Budget Allocation and State Capture-Related Activities -- Reference -- Chapter 2: Synopsis of Fiscal Policy in South Africa: 1994-2020 -- 2.1 Introduction -- 2.2 What Do the Last 34 Years Suggest About the Fiscal Policy Framework? -- 2.2.1 The Government Debt Trends -- 2.2.2 Developments in Revenue -- 2.3 Did the Fiscal Policy Framework Perform as Expected in Supporting South Africa to Absorb Unexpected Asymmetric Shocks? -- 2.4 Did the Countercyclical Fiscal Policy Implemented in 2009 Perform as Expected? -- 2.5 Conclusion |
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and Policy Implications -- Reference -- Part I: Effect of Government Debt Dynamics -- Chapter 3: Effects of Government Debt on Output, Household Consumption, and Gross Fixed Capital Formation: Role of the Credit Conditions Channel -- 3.1 Introduction -- 3.2 Theory on the Link Between Credit Conditions and Government Debt -- 3.3 Model -- 3.4 Trends Analysis. |
3.4.1 The Interaction Between Government Debt and Credit Conditions -- 3.4.2 The Role of Credit Conditions in Transmitting Positive Government Debt Shocks to Output, Household Consumption, and Investment -- 3.4.3 Disentangling the Effects of Government Debt Ratio and Credit Conditions on Real Variables -- 3.4.4 Forecast Error Variance Decompositions -- 3.5 Conclusion and Policy Implications -- References -- Chapter 4: Government Debt and Household Consumption: The Influence of the Wealth Channel -- 4.1 Introduction -- 4.2 The Link Between Government Debt-to-GDP Ratio, Consumption, Credit Conditions, and Wealth -- 4.3 The Model -- 4.4 Data -- 4.5 Empirical Results -- 4.5.1 Forecast Error Variance Decompositions -- 4.6 The Role of Household Balance Sheet in Transmitting Positive Government Debt Shocks to Household Consumption -- 4.7 Conclusion and Policy Implications -- References -- Chapter 5: Government Debt and Capital Formation Nexus in South Africa: The Role of the Debt Threshold -- 5.1 Introduction -- 5.2 Theory -- 5.3 Methodology -- 5.4 Data and Stylised Facts -- 5.4.1 Cross Correlation and Correlations -- 5.5 Results -- 5.6 Evidence from Robustness Testing -- 5.7 Further Robustness Testing -- 5.8 Conclusion and Policy Implications -- Appendix -- References -- Chapter 6: Government Debt and Fixed Capital Formation Nexus: Effects of the Interest Rate and Monetary Policy Credibility Channels -- 6.1 Introduction -- 6.2 Do Government Debt Shocks Affect Gross Fixed Capital Formation Asymmetrically? -- 6.3 VAR Modelling -- 6.3.1 Forecast Variance Decompositions -- 6.3.2 Historical Decompositions -- 6.4 Counterfactual Analysis -- 6.4.1 The Role of the Interest Rate Channel -- 6.4.2 Does Monetary Policy Credibility Matter? -- 6.5 Conclusion and Policy Implications -- References. |
Chapter 7: Inflation Targeting Band, the Government Debt, and Capital Formation Nexus in South Africa -- 7.1 Introduction -- 7.2 Theory and Why Inflation Thresholds Matter -- 7.3 Data -- 7.4 Methodology -- 7.5 Results -- 7.6 A Counterfactual VAR Perspective -- 7.7 The Role of the Inflation Expectations Channel -- 7.8 Conclusion and Policy Implications -- References -- Chapter 8: Do High Government Debt-to-GDP Regimes Propagate the Adverse Macroeconomic Effects of High Budget Deficit Regimes? -- 8.1 Introduction -- 8.2 How Selected Macroeconomic Variables Respond to the Government Debt Regimes? -- 8.3 How Robust Are the Responses of Selected Macroeconomic Variables to the Government Debt Regimes? -- 8.4 Does the High Debt-to-GDP Channel Propagate the Macroeconomic Effects of High Budget Deficit Regimes? -- 8.5 Conclusion and Policy Implications -- References -- Chapter 9: Government Debt-to-GDP Ratio, Investment Growth and Employment Growth, and Their Response to High Nominal GDP Growth Regimes -- 9.1 Introduction -- 9.2 How Does the Debt-to-GDP Ratio Respond to Positive NGDP Growth Shocks? -- 9.3 Responses of Investment Growth and Employment Growth to Positive NGDP Shocks -- 9.4 Effects of Positive Shocks in the High and Low NGDP Growth Regimes on the Debt-to-GDP Ratio -- 9.5 Conclusion and Policy Implications -- Reference -- Chapter 10: The Impact of the Government Debt-to-GDP Ratio on Investment Growth -- 10.1 Introduction -- 10.2 Responses of Real GDP Growth, Employment Growth, and Investment Growth to Positive Debt-to-GDP Shocks -- |
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10.3 Private and Public Sector Employment Results -- 10.4 Responses to Persistent and Non-persistent Positive Debt-to-GDP Shocks -- 10.5 Responses of Real GDP Growth, Employment Growth, and Investment Growth to Shocks in Low and High Debt-to-GDP Regimes -- 10.6 Conclusion and Policy Implications -- Reference. |
Part II: The Effects of Fiscal Budget Balance Deficits Dynamics -- Chapter 11: Budget Balance Deficit Thresholds and Their Macroeconomic Impact -- 11.1 Introduction -- 11.2 How Do Government Bond Yields, Output Growth, and Employment Growth Respond to Positive Shocks to the Budget Deficit? -- 11.3 How Robust Are the Results to Changes to Model Size and Specification? -- 11.4 Inflation Responses Due to an Unexpected Rise in the Budget Deficit -- 11.5 Do High and Low Budget Deficit Regimes Exert Different Effects on Various Macroeconomic Variables? -- 11.6 Conclusion and Policy Implications -- References -- Chapter 12: The Impact of a Persistent Increase in the Budget Deficit on Real Interest Rates -- 12.1 Introduction -- 12.2 How Does a Persistent Increase in the Budget Deficit Impact Real Rates and Other Macroeconomic Variables? -- 12.3 Are the Results Robust to Changes in the Model Technique? -- 12.4 Are There Real Economic Activity Asymmetric Responses Due to Shocks That Arise in Low and High Budget Deficit Regimes? -- 12.5 Do High Budget Deficit Regimes Propagate the Negative Effects of Inflationary Pressures? -- 12.6 Conclusion and Policy Implications -- Reference -- Chapter 13: What Are the Effects of Budget Balance Deficit Regimes on Inflation and Inflation Expectations? -- 13.1 Introduction -- 13.2 How Do Inflation and Inflation Expectations Respond to Positive Budget Deficit Shocks? -- 13.3 Do Budget Deficit Regimes Matter for Inflation and Inflation Expectations? -- 13.4 What Are the Effects of Persistent and Non-persistent Budget Deficit Shocks on Inflation and Inflation Expectations? -- 13.5 Conclusion and Policy Implications -- References -- Part III: The Effects of Interest Rates and Debt Service Cost of Government Debt -- Chapter 14: Widening Budget Deficits and Investment Growth Dynamics -- 14.1 Introduction. |
14.2 How Does Investment Growth Respond to Positive Budget Deficit Shocks? -- 14.3 Are the Results Affected by the Inclusion of the Interest Rate Channel? -- 14.4 Does the Inclusion of the Business and Consumer Confidence Indices Change the Results? -- 14.5 Does the Interest Rate Channel Amplify the Impact of the Positive Budget Deficit Shocks? -- 14.6 What Role Do the Business and Consumer Confidence Channels Play in the Amplification of the Positive Budget Deficit Shocks? -- 14.7 Conclusion and Policy Implications -- References -- Chapter 15: Do High Government Debt Service Costs Reduce the Potency of Accommodative Fiscal Policy in South Africa? -- 15.1 Introduction -- 15.2 What Explains the Different Trends in the Interest Payments Observed Between South Africa and the Advanced Economies? -- 15.3 Brief Literature on Fiscal Multipliers -- 15.3.1 What Factors Influence the Size of Fiscal Multipliers? -- 15.4 Stylised Facts -- 15.5 Does the Increase in Interest Payments to Nominal GDP Ratio Explain Significant Changes in the Fiscal Multipliers in South Africa? -- 15.6 Robustness Analysis Using the Endogenous-Exogenous VAR Approach -- 15.7 Does the Tight Monetary Policy Stance Dampen the Impact of Fiscal Expansions on GDP Growth, Employment Growth, and the Unemployment Rate? -- 15.8 Conclusions and Policy Recommendations -- Appendix -- References -- Chapter 16: What Are the Macroeconomic Effects of a Positive Interest Rate-GDP Growth Differential Shock? -- 16.1 Introduction -- 16.2 What Is the Importance and Significance of the Interest Rate-GDP Growth Differentials? -- 16.3 |
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What Are the Macroeconomic Effects of Positive Shocks to the Interest Rate-GDP Growth Differential? -- 16.4 Robustness Analysis -- 16.5 Do Positive and Negative Interest Rate-GDP Growth Differential Regimes Exert Different Macroeconomic Effects?. |
16.6 Conclusion and Policy Implications. |
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