1.

Record Nr.

UNINA9910143702603321

Autore

Weron Rafał

Titolo

Modeling and forecasting electricity loads and prices [[electronic resource] ] : a statistical approach / / Rafał Weron

Pubbl/distr/stampa

Chichester, England ; ; Hoboken, NJ, : John Wiley & Sons, c2006

ISBN

1-118-67336-0

1-280-74001-9

9786610740017

0-470-05999-0

Descrizione fisica

1 online resource (194 p.)

Collana

Wiley finance series

Disciplina

333.793/213015195

333.793213015195

Soggetti

Electric power consumption - Forecasting - Statistical methods

Electric utilities - Rates - Forecasting - Statistical methods

Electronic books.

Lingua di pubblicazione

Inglese

Formato

Materiale a stampa

Livello bibliografico

Monografia

Note generali

Description based upon print version of record.

Nota di bibliografia

Includes bibliographical references (p. [157]-170) and index.

Nota di contenuto

Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Loads and Prices; Contents; Preface; Acknowledgments; 1 Complex Electricity Markets; 1.1 Liberalization; 1.2 The Marketplace; 1.2.1 Power Pools and Power Exchanges; 1.2.2 Nodal and Zonal Pricing; 1.2.3 Market Structure; 1.2.4 Traded Products; 1.3 Europe; 1.3.1 The England and Wales Electricity Market; 1.3.2 The Nordic Market; 1.3.3 Price Setting at Nord Pool; 1.3.4 Continental Europe; 1.4 North America; 1.4.1 PJM Interconnection; 1.4.2 California and the Electricity Crisis; 1.4.3 Alberta and Ontario; 1.5 Australia and New Zealand; 1.6 Summary

1.7 Further Reading2 Stylized Facts of Electricity Loads and Prices; 2.1 Introduction; 2.2 Price Spikes; 2.2.1 Case Study: The June 1998 Cinergy Price Spike; 2.2.2 When Supply Meets Demand; 2.2.3 What is Causing the Spikes?; 2.2.4 The Definition; 2.3 Seasonality; 2.3.1 Measuring Serial Correlation; 2.3.2 Spectral Analysis and the Periodogram; 2.3.3 Case Study: Seasonal Behavior of Electricity Prices and Loads; 2.4 Seasonal Decomposition; 2.4.1 Differencing; 2.4.2 Mean or Median Week; 2.4.3 Moving Average Technique; 2.4.4 Annual Seasonality and



Spectral Decomposition

2.4.5 Rolling Volatility Technique2.4.6 Case Study: Rolling Volatility in Practice; 2.4.7 Wavelet Decomposition; 2.4.8 Case Study: Wavelet Filtering of Nord Pool Hourly System Prices; 2.5 Mean Reversion; 2.5.1 R/S Analysis; 2.5.2 Detrended Fluctuation Analysis; 2.5.3 Periodogram Regression; 2.5.4 Average Wavelet Coefficient; 2.5.5 Case Study: Anti-persistence of Electricity Prices; 2.6 Distributions of Electricity Prices; 2.6.1 Stable Distributions; 2.6.2 Hyperbolic Distributions; 2.6.3 Case Study: Distribution of EEX Spot Prices; 2.6.4 Further Empirical Evidence and Possible Applications

2.7 Summary2.8 Further Reading; 3 Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Loads; 3.1 Introduction; 3.2 Factors Affecting Load Patterns; 3.2.1 Case Study: Dealing with Missing Values and Outliers; 3.2.2 Time Factors; 3.2.3 Weather Conditions; 3.2.4 Case Study: California Weather vs Load; 3.2.5 Other Factors; 3.3 Overview of Artificial Intelligence-Based Methods; 3.4 Statistical Methods; 3.4.1 Similar-Day Method; 3.4.2 Exponential Smoothing; 3.4.3 Regression Methods; 3.4.4 Autoregressive Model; 3.4.5 Autoregressive Moving Average Model; 3.4.6 ARMA Model Identification

3.4.7 Case Study: Modeling Daily Loads in California3.4.8 Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model; 3.4.9 Time Series Models with Exogenous Variables; 3.4.10 Case Study: Modeling Daily Loads in California with Exogenous Variables; 3.5 Summary; 3.6 Further Reading; 4 Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Prices; 4.1 Introduction; 4.2 Overview of Modeling Approaches; 4.3 Statistical Methods and Price Forecasting; 4.3.1 Exogenous Factors; 4.3.2 Spike Preprocessing; 4.3.3 How to Assess the Quality of Price Forecasts; 4.3.4 ARMA-type Models; 4.3.5 Time Series Models with Exogenous Variables

4.3.6 Autoregressive GARCH Models

Sommario/riassunto

This book offers an in-depth and up-to-date review of different statistical tools that can be used to analyze and forecast the dynamics of two crucial for every energy company processes-electricity prices and loads. It provides coverage of seasonal decomposition, mean reversion, heavy-tailed distributions, exponential smoothing, spike preprocessing, autoregressive time series including models with exogenous variables and heteroskedastic (GARCH) components, regime-switching models, interval forecasts, jump-diffusion models, derivatives pricing and the market price of risk. Modeling and Foreca



2.

Record Nr.

UNINA9910706158503321

Autore

De Groh Kim K.

Titolo

Analyses of contaminated solar array handrail samples retrieved from Mir / / Kim K. de Groh, Terry R. McCue

Pubbl/distr/stampa

Cleveland, Ohio : , : National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Glenn Research Center, , October 1999

Descrizione fisica

1 online resource (15 pages) : illustrations

Collana

NASA/TM ; ; 1999-209399

Soggetti

Aerospace environments

Contaminants

Solar arrays

Lingua di pubblicazione

Inglese

Formato

Materiale a stampa

Livello bibliografico

Monografia

Note generali

"October 1999."

"Prepared for the 34th Intersociety Energy Conversion Engineering Conference sponsored by the Society of Automotive Engineers, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, August 1-5, 1999."

Performing organization: National Aeronautics and Space Administration, John H. Glenn Research Center at Lewis Field"--Report documentation page.

Nota di bibliografia

Includes bibliographical references (page 15).