1.

Record Nr.

UNINA9910788225703321

Autore

Clinton Kevin

Titolo

Constructing Forecast Confidence Bands During the Financial Crisis / / Kevin Clinton, Marianne Johnson, Huigang Chen, Ondrej Kamenik, Douglas Laxton

Pubbl/distr/stampa

Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2009

ISBN

1-4623-7594-4

1-282-84420-2

1-4527-2887-9

1-4518-7361-1

9786612844201

Descrizione fisica

23 p. : ill

Collana

IMF Working Papers

Altri autori (Persone)

JohnsonMarianne

ChenHuigang

KamenikOndrej

LaxtonDouglas

Soggetti

Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009

Financial crises - United States - Econometric models

Financial crises - European Union countries - Econometric models

Financial crises - Japan - Econometric models

Petroleum products - Prices - United States - Econometric models

Petroleum products - Prices - European Union countries - Econometric models

Petroleum products - Prices - Japan - Econometric models

Interest rates - United States - Econometric models

Interest rates - European Union countries - Econometric models

Interest rates - Japan - Econometric models

Bank loans - United States - Econometric models

Bank loans - European Union countries - Econometric models

Bank loans - Japan - Econometric models

Foreign Exchange

Inflation

Macroeconomics

Production and Operations Management

Macroeconomics: Production

Energy: Demand and Supply

Prices

Price Level

Deflation



Currency

Foreign exchange

Oil prices

Output gap

Potential output

Real exchange rates

Production

Economic theory

United States

Lingua di pubblicazione

Inglese

Formato

Materiale a stampa

Livello bibliografico

Monografia

Note generali

"September 2009."

Sommario/riassunto

We derive forecast confidence bands using a Global Projection Model covering the United States, the euro area, and Japan. In the model, the price of oil is a stochastic process, interest rates have a zero floor, and bank lending tightening affects the United States. To calculate confidence intervals that respect the zero interest rate floor, we employ Latin hypercube sampling. Derived confidence bands suggest non-negligible risks that U.S. interest rates might stay near zero for an extended period, and that severe credit conditions might persist.



2.

Record Nr.

UNINA9910629584103321

Autore

Millward Gareth

Titolo

Sick note : a history of the British welfare state / / Gareth Millward

Pubbl/distr/stampa

Oxford : , : Oxford University Press, , [2022]

ISBN

0-19-268965-7

0-19-195649-X

0-19-268964-9

Descrizione fisica

1 online resource (245 pages)

Collana

Oxford scholarship online.

Disciplina

305.5620942

Soggetti

Welfare state

Social Welfare - history

Welfare state - History

Sick leave

Social medicine - Great Britain

Sick leave - Social aspects - Great Britain

Sick leave - Economic aspects - Great Britain

Lingua di pubblicazione

Inglese

Formato

Materiale a stampa

Livello bibliografico

Monografia

Nota di bibliografia

Includes bibliographical references and index.

Nota di contenuto

List of Figures -- List of Abbreviations -- 1. Introduction -- 2. The 'Birth' of the Sick Note -- 3. Absenteeism and Postwar Rebuilding -- 4. Chauvinists and Breadwinners in the 'Classic Welfare State' -- 5. Privatization? The Sick Note into the 1980s -- 6. Chronicity and Capacity towards the New Millennium -- 7. The 'Death' of the Sick Note? -- 8. Conclusion -- Bibliography -- Index.

Sommario/riassunto

Sick Note is a history of how the British state asked, 'who is really sick?' Tracing medical certification for absence from work from 1948 to 2010, it shows that doctors, employers, employees, politicians, media commentators, and citizens each concerned themselves with measuring sickness. At various times, each understood that a signed note from a doctor was not enough to 'prove' whether someone was 'really' sick. Yet, with no better alternative on offer, the sick note survived in practice and in the popular imagination-just like the welfare state itself. Sick Note reveals the interplay between medical, employment, and



social security policy. The physical note became an integral part of working and living in Britain, while the term 'sick note' was often deployed rhetorically as a mocking nickname or symbol of Britain's economic and political troubles. Using government policy documents, popular media, internet archives, and contemporary research, this book covers the evolution of medical certification and the welfare state since the Second World War, demonstrating how sickness and disability policies responded to demographic and economic changes-though not always satisfactorily for administrators or claimants. Moreover, despite the creation of 'the fit note' in 2010, the idea of 'the sick note' has remained. With the specific challenges posed by the global pandemic in the early 2020s, Sick Note shows how the question of 'who is really sick?' has never been straightforward and will continue to perplex the British state.