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1. |
Record Nr. |
UNINA9910788225703321 |
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Autore |
Clinton Kevin |
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Titolo |
Constructing Forecast Confidence Bands During the Financial Crisis / / Kevin Clinton, Marianne Johnson, Huigang Chen, Ondrej Kamenik, Douglas Laxton |
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Pubbl/distr/stampa |
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Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2009 |
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ISBN |
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1-4623-7594-4 |
1-282-84420-2 |
1-4527-2887-9 |
1-4518-7361-1 |
9786612844201 |
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Descrizione fisica |
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Collana |
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Altri autori (Persone) |
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JohnsonMarianne |
ChenHuigang |
KamenikOndrej |
LaxtonDouglas |
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Soggetti |
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Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009 |
Financial crises - United States - Econometric models |
Financial crises - European Union countries - Econometric models |
Financial crises - Japan - Econometric models |
Petroleum products - Prices - United States - Econometric models |
Petroleum products - Prices - European Union countries - Econometric models |
Petroleum products - Prices - Japan - Econometric models |
Interest rates - United States - Econometric models |
Interest rates - European Union countries - Econometric models |
Interest rates - Japan - Econometric models |
Bank loans - United States - Econometric models |
Bank loans - European Union countries - Econometric models |
Bank loans - Japan - Econometric models |
Foreign Exchange |
Inflation |
Macroeconomics |
Production and Operations Management |
Macroeconomics: Production |
Energy: Demand and Supply |
Prices |
Price Level |
Deflation |
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Currency |
Foreign exchange |
Oil prices |
Output gap |
Potential output |
Real exchange rates |
Production |
Economic theory |
United States |
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Lingua di pubblicazione |
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Formato |
Materiale a stampa |
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Livello bibliografico |
Monografia |
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Note generali |
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Sommario/riassunto |
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We derive forecast confidence bands using a Global Projection Model covering the United States, the euro area, and Japan. In the model, the price of oil is a stochastic process, interest rates have a zero floor, and bank lending tightening affects the United States. To calculate confidence intervals that respect the zero interest rate floor, we employ Latin hypercube sampling. Derived confidence bands suggest non-negligible risks that U.S. interest rates might stay near zero for an extended period, and that severe credit conditions might persist. |
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2. |
Record Nr. |
UNINA9910629584103321 |
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Autore |
Millward Gareth |
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Titolo |
Sick note : a history of the British welfare state / / Gareth Millward |
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Pubbl/distr/stampa |
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Oxford : , : Oxford University Press, , [2022] |
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ISBN |
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0-19-268965-7 |
0-19-195649-X |
0-19-268964-9 |
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Descrizione fisica |
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1 online resource (245 pages) |
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Collana |
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Oxford scholarship online. |
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Disciplina |
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Soggetti |
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Welfare state |
Social Welfare - history |
Welfare state - History |
Sick leave |
Social medicine - Great Britain |
Sick leave - Social aspects - Great Britain |
Sick leave - Economic aspects - Great Britain |
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Lingua di pubblicazione |
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Formato |
Materiale a stampa |
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Livello bibliografico |
Monografia |
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Nota di bibliografia |
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Includes bibliographical references and index. |
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Nota di contenuto |
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List of Figures -- List of Abbreviations -- 1. Introduction -- 2. The 'Birth' of the Sick Note -- 3. Absenteeism and Postwar Rebuilding -- 4. Chauvinists and Breadwinners in the 'Classic Welfare State' -- 5. Privatization? The Sick Note into the 1980s -- 6. Chronicity and Capacity towards the New Millennium -- 7. The 'Death' of the Sick Note? -- 8. Conclusion -- Bibliography -- Index. |
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Sommario/riassunto |
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Sick Note is a history of how the British state asked, 'who is really sick?' Tracing medical certification for absence from work from 1948 to 2010, it shows that doctors, employers, employees, politicians, media commentators, and citizens each concerned themselves with measuring sickness. At various times, each understood that a signed note from a doctor was not enough to 'prove' whether someone was 'really' sick. Yet, with no better alternative on offer, the sick note survived in practice and in the popular imagination-just like the welfare state itself. Sick Note reveals the interplay between medical, employment, and |
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social security policy. The physical note became an integral part of working and living in Britain, while the term 'sick note' was often deployed rhetorically as a mocking nickname or symbol of Britain's economic and political troubles. Using government policy documents, popular media, internet archives, and contemporary research, this book covers the evolution of medical certification and the welfare state since the Second World War, demonstrating how sickness and disability policies responded to demographic and economic changes-though not always satisfactorily for administrators or claimants. Moreover, despite the creation of 'the fit note' in 2010, the idea of 'the sick note' has remained. With the specific challenges posed by the global pandemic in the early 2020s, Sick Note shows how the question of 'who is really sick?' has never been straightforward and will continue to perplex the British state. |
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