Intro -- Preface -- Contents -- List of Figures -- List of Tables -- 1 Decision-Making: Concepts, Principles, and Uncertainty -- 1.1 Introduction to Decisions -- 1.2 Overview of Decision Analysis -- 1.3 Uncertainty, Risk, Vagueness -- 1.4 Review of Methods for Decision-Making -- 1.5 Summary -- References -- 2 Utility Theory -- 2.1 Introduction to Utility Theory -- 2.2 Historical Development of the Utility Theory Concept -- 2.3 Risk Attitude -- 2.4 Positive Affine Transformation -- 2.5 Certainty Equivalent -- 2.6 Formulation of Utility Theory -- 2.7 Utility Theory: Decision Making Under Risk -- 2.8 Utility Theory: Decision Making Under Uncertainty -- 2.9 Bayesianism -- 2.10 Violation of Savage's Theory and Prospect Theory -- 2.11 Summary -- References -- 3 Probability and Inference Theory -- 3.1 Introduction to Probability -- 3.2 Operations with Probability -- 3.3 Population, Sample, Random Variables -- 3.4 Formulation of the Bayes Theorem and Its Meaning-The Value of Information -- 3.5 Sampling. Central Limit Theorem -- 3.6 Additional Probability Distributions -- 3.7 Statistical Inference -- 3.8 Summary -- Reference -- 4 Probabilistic Evaluation of Uncertainties: Monte Carlo Method -- 4.1 Introduction to Monte Carlo Simulation -- 4.2 Simple Monte Carlo Applications -- 4.3 Number of Monte Carlo Simulations -- 4.4 Monte Carlo Method Workflow -- 4.5 Another Sampling Technique: Latin Hypercube Sampling -- 4.6 Advantages and Disadvantages of Monte Carlo |