1.

Record Nr.

UNINA9910464572403321

Autore

Chami Saade

Titolo

Yemen [[electronic resource] ] : exchange rate policy in the face of dwindling oil exports / / prepared by Saade Chami ... [et. al.]

Pubbl/distr/stampa

[Washington, D.C.], : International Monetary Fund, 2007

ISBN

1-4623-2557-2

1-4527-5719-4

1-283-51495-8

9786613827401

1-4519-1022-3

Descrizione fisica

1 online resource (24 p.)

Collana

IMF working paper ; ; WP/07/5

Disciplina

339.4

339.43

Soggetti

Foreign exchange rates - Yemen (Republic)

Petroleum industry and trade - Yemen (Republic)

Exports - Yemen (Republic)

Electronic books.

Lingua di pubblicazione

Inglese

Formato

Materiale a stampa

Livello bibliografico

Monografia

Note generali

"January 2007."

Nota di bibliografia

Includes bibliographical references (p. 21-22).

Nota di contenuto

Contents; I. Introduction; II. Background and Macroeconomic Outlook; Figures; 1. Exchange Rate and Inflation Developments, January 1998-June 2006; III. Estimating the Equilibrium Exchange Rate; 2. Yemen and GCC Countries, Real Effective Exchange Rates, January 1995-June 2006; IV. Equilibrium Exchange Rate in Yemen; A. Data and variables; 3. Real Effective Exchange Rate and its Key Determinants; B. Methodology; C. Econometric Results; Tables; 1. Selected Results of the VEC; D. Equilibrium (long-run) Relationship; E. Impact of Declining Oil Production on the REER

F. Impact on the Nominal Exchange Rate: An Illustrative ExerciseV. Exchange Rate Regime Options; 4. Yemeni Rial-Daily Exchange Rate Versus U.S. Dollar, January-August 2006; VI. Conclusions; Appendix; 1. Variables; References

Sommario/riassunto

This paper investigates the likely implications of declining oil



production on Yemen's equilibrium exchange rate, and discusses policy options to ensure a smooth transition to a nonoil economy. The empirical results suggest that, as oil production and foreign exchange earnings fall, the Yemeni rial will have to adjust downward in real effective terms to keep pace with the equilibrium exchange rate. In light of strong pass-through from exchange rate depreciation to domestic inflation, this could entail a substantial depreciation in nominal terms. Given the nature of the adjustment, a floating e