1.

Record Nr.

UNINA9910464248303321

Autore

Baldacci Emanuele

Titolo

Is it (still) mostly fiscal? : determinants of sovereign spreads in emerging markets / / Emanuele Baldacci, Sanjeev Gupta and Amine Mati

Pubbl/distr/stampa

[Washington, District of Columbia] : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2008

©2008

ISBN

1-4623-8303-3

1-4527-1880-6

9786612842108

1-282-84210-2

1-4518-7117-1

Descrizione fisica

1 online resource (25 p.)

Collana

IMF Working Papers

IMF working paper ; ; WP/08/259

Altri autori (Persone)

GuptaSanjeev

MatiAmine

Disciplina

332.63234

Soggetti

Corporate bonds - Developing countries - Econometric models

State bonds - Developing countries - Econometric models

Electronic books.

Lingua di pubblicazione

Inglese

Formato

Materiale a stampa

Livello bibliografico

Monografia

Note generali

Description based upon print version of record.

Nota di bibliografia

Includes bibliographical references.

Nota di contenuto

Contents; I. Introduction; II. Literature Review; III. Sovereign Spreads: A Simple Theoretical Framework; IV. Empirical Model Specification; V. Data and Estimation Results; Tables; 1. Descriptive Statistics; 2. Correlation Between (log) Spreads, Political Risk and Fiscal Variables; Charts; 1. Emerging Market Risk (log) Spreads and Various Political Risk Indices; 2. Emerging Market Risk (log) Spreads and Fiscal Variables; 3. Random Effects Estimates; VI. Robustness Analysis; 4. Alternative Estimations: Whole Sample; VII. Conclusions; 5. Effects of Different Political Variables on Spreads

Sommario/riassunto

Using a panel of 30 emerging market economies from 1997 to 2007, this paper investigates the determinants of country risk premiums as



measured by sovereign bond spreads. Unlike previous studies, the results indicate that both fiscal and political factors matter for credit risk in emerging markets. Lower levels of political risk are associated with tighter spreads, while efforts at fiscal consolidation narrow credit spreads, especially in countries that experienced prior defaults. The composition of fiscal policy matters: spending on public investment contributes to lower spreads as long as the