1.

Record Nr.

UNINA9910464232703321

Autore

Zoli Edda

Titolo

Commodity price volatility, cyclical fluctuations, and convergence [[electronic resource] ] : what is ahead for inflation in emerging Europe? / / prepared by Edda Zoli

Pubbl/distr/stampa

[Washington D.C.], : International Monetary Fund, 2009

ISBN

1-4623-8100-6

1-4527-4906-X

9786612842634

1-282-84263-3

1-4518-7189-9

Descrizione fisica

1 online resource (21 p.)

Collana

IMF working paper ; ; WP/09/41

Disciplina

338.278

Soggetti

Primary commodities - Prices - Europe

Inflation (Finance) - Europe

Electronic books.

Lingua di pubblicazione

Inglese

Formato

Materiale a stampa

Livello bibliografico

Monografia

Note generali

Description based upon print version of record.

Nota di bibliografia

Includes bibliographical references.

Nota di contenuto

Contents; I. Introduction; Figures; 1. Headline Inflation; II. VAR analysis; 2. Variance Decomposition of Headline Inflation; Tables; 1: Response of Domestic Energy Inflation to International Oil Price Inflation Shocks; 2. Response of Domestic Food Inflation to International Food Price Inflation Shocks; III. Panel Estimation; 3. Response of Core Inflation to Shocks to Domestic Food and Energy Price Inflation; 4. Panel Regression Results; IV. Conclusion: What is Ahead for Inflation in Emerging Europe?; Appendixes; 1. Variable Definition and Data Sources; 2. Other Panel Results; References

Sommario/riassunto

This paper assesses the role of international commodity prices, cyclical fluctuations, and convergence in driving inflation in 18 European emerging economies. Country specific VARs and panel estimates indicate that international commodity price shocks have a significant impact on domestic inflation, but the inflation response is asymmetric for positive and negative shocks. Cyclical fluctuations explain a relative small share of inflation variability, and the inflation response is



asymmetric during upturns and downturns. Price convergence is estimated to add nearly 3 percentage points to headli